In the loop 25 September 2025

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is trading at R17.33/$ this morning, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.35/$*).
EM currencies were mostly weaker yesterday; the HUF (-1.0%), CZK (-1.0%) and BRL (-0.9%) were the biggest losers; the ARS (+2.1%), INR (+0.1%) and RUB (+0.1%) gained.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Central bank watch: the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is set to hold rates steady at zero this morning.
A shift in communication strategy from the SNB will see minutes for the first time being released four weeks later.
The strong franc amid a fragile GDP outlook may force the SNB to move rates below zero in due course.

The ECB will release updated forecasts today; these will be closely watched amid concerns that US tariffs are dampening growth in the region.
The Ifo business climate index for Germany fell to 87.7 in September, from a revised 88.9 in August.
German businesses are more optimistic regarding future conditions and less satisfied with their current business situation.
While growth in the Eurozone is likely to remain weak this year, government spending on defence and infrastructure should boost the bloc’s growth next year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the "challenging situation" facing the Fed in a speech yesterday.
"Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside", he said.
He added that those "two-sided risks mean there is no risk-free path" for monetary policy.
Commenting on financial conditions more broadly, Powell said that “equity prices are fairly highly valued".
However, he noted that it "isn't a time of elevated financial stability risks".
A range of Fed policymakers will be speaking today.

US new home sales surprised to the upside in August.
New single-family home sales recorded an annualised increase of 800k in August, up from an upwardly revised 664k in July.
The 20.5% m/m surge in new home sales represents the fastest pace of growth since 2022.
Sales were likely boosted by lower mortgage rates as well as builders’ price cuts and sales incentives; despite the improvement, affordability concerns linger.
MBA mortgage applications rose 0.6% on a w/w basis for the week ended 19 September, after surging 29.7% w/w in the previous week.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined further to 6.34% in the week ended 19 September, from 6.39% in the prior week.
Today will see the release of existing home sales for August.

Locally, consumer confidence for Q3:25 is due out this morning.
The index recovered some lost ground in Q2:25, improving to -10, after plunging to -20 in Q1:25, from -6 in Q4:24.
Confidence remained relatively downbeat among low-income households, but with confidence improving more among high- and middle-income households in Q2:25.
The data may provide further guidance on the resilience of the consumer in Q3:25, after recent spending data coming in quite strongly.

PPI inflation for August will also be released today.
The PPI rose 0.7% m/m in July, to 1.5% y/y; PPI inflation likely accelerated further in y/y terms in August.

Brent crude oil is currently at $68.95/bbl; ($69.31/bbl*).
Gold is at $3738/oz ($3736/oz*).
SA CDS 167bps*, Brazil 135bps* and Turkey 259bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.15%*, German bund at 2.75%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.19%**, SA’s R2035 at 9.07%**.

* Denotes yesterday’s close; **Denotes Tuesday’s close

Key events and data:

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