In the loop 27 November 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.11/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.10/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+2.3%), CLP (+1.1%) and BRL (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-1.5%), CZK (-0.5%) and INR (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the Bank of Korea today held its benchmark interest rate steady, at 2.50%.
The minutes of the ECB’s October meeting will be watched closely to determine if there is any remaining support for further interest rate cuts.

China’s industrial profits fell 5.5% y/y in October, reversing the strong momentum seen in the previous two months when profits grew by more than 20%.
Over the first 10 months of the year, however, profits were still up 1.9%.
Manufacturers and utilities continued to post solid gains, but mining companies struggled with double-digit declines in earnings.
The unexpected deterioration underscores how a cooling economy is increasingly weighing on corporate profitability.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane commented that headline inflation in the Eurozone has recently hovered near the ECB’s 2% target.
However, the ECB still needs clear signs of a slowdown in non-energy inflation before it can be confident that price growth is sustainably under control.
Lane noted that falling energy prices have helped pull down overall inflation, but persistent strength in non-energy components remains a concern.
Lane expressed cautious optimism, arguing that a likely easing of wage-driven inflationary pressures should contribute to a deceleration in non-energy inflation over time.
He also highlighted structural challenges facing the Eurozone.

The Eurozone consumer and economic confidence data for November are scheduled for release today.
Consumer confidence for November (final estimate) is likely to have remained unchanged, at -14.2, matching October’s print.
Economic confidence is expected to have increased to 97.0 in November, from 96.8 in October.

The US Fed’s Beige Book presented a mixed picture of economic activity across the 12 Fed districts.
Overall economic activity was described as having “changed little”.
Only a minority of districts reported modest growth, several cited slight to moderate expansion, while many others reported flat conditions or even slight softening.
Demand for workers remained generally weak or stagnant, with employment mostly flat and hiring plans muted in many regions.
Several firms reportedly resorted to layoffs or hiring freezes amid uncertainty about demand and economic outlook.
Wages rose only modestly and for many businesses the cost pressures were outweighing their ability to raise selling prices.
The report noted continued price increases; cost pressures came from materials, insurance, healthcare and trade-related tariffs.
The tone of the November report signals a US economy that is not deteriorating sharply but lacks momentum.

Locally, the October PPI is on the cards today and is expected to come in at 3.1% y/y, after having increased by 2.3% y/y in September.

Brent crude oil is currently at $62.80/bbl; ($63.13/bbl*).
Gold is at $4153/oz ($4162/oz*).
SA CDS 146bps*, Brazil 142bps* and Turkey 239bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 3.99%*, German bund at 2.67%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.68%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.56%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

11h00: Eurozone M3 money supply (October)
11h30: SA PPI (October)
12h00: Eurozone consumer confidence (November – final), economic confidence (November)
14h30: Eurozone ECB MPC meeting minutes (30 October)
US holiday - Thanksgiving

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