Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
The SA Daily 22 May 2018

SA leading indicator due out

  • SA’s leading economic indicator (LEI) for March is due out today; it indicates business-cycle activity. There was an uptick in February, to 108.3 pts, the highest since Q1:12, from 106.8 pts in January. We see the index inching up over the next few months due to the various tailwinds spurring sentiment.
  • These tailwinds come in the form of the much improved SA political economy as well as the positive policy signals since December 2017. Also, global growth is robust and, given that SA is an open economy, demand for commodities would benefit SA. Further, the 25 bps rate cut by the SARB earlier this year as well as the benign inflation outlook will support rising real household disposable income.
  • In due course, the recovery in employment and business confidence will play a crucial role in determining the extent of economic growth.
  • We expect 1.8% growth in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019, with the risks to the upside (see Outlook largely unchanged of 14 May, by Elna Moolman).

Read PDF