In the loop 28 November 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.16/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.15/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.8%), KRW (+0.4%) and ARS (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-0.4%), BRL (-0.4%) and CLP (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

The BOE’s Megan Greene noted yesterday that the government’s plan to cut households’ energy bills by £150 ($199) a year may help lower the public’s inflation expectations.
She noted, however, the policy implications as ‘uncertain’.
Typically, policymakers look through measures that generate only a one-off decline in inflation, rather than sustained year-on-year price drops.
Still, with household inflation expectations remaining elevated, any shift lower would be helpful for the BOE.
Greene had voted against the BoE’s most recent interest rate cut in August.
She reiterated earlier this month that she does not view the current 4% policy rate as “meaningfully restrictive”.
She also emphasised that she remains concerned about future wage growth and its risks to inflation.

Preliminary November inflation data from the Eurozone’s major economies will be released.
Headline inflation in Germany is expected to have accelerated further above 2%, to 2.5% y/y, from 2.3% y/y in October.
Inflation in France is forecast to have edged up to 0.9% y/y in November, supported by higher energy prices and a positive base effect from communication services.
Spain’s inflation rate is expected to have eased slightly, to 3.0% y/y in November, from 3.2% y/y.
Italy’s inflation likely remained steady, at 1.3% y/y, in November.

Eurozone inflation expectations 3 years ahead are likely to have remained unchanged, at 2.5%, in October.
Inflation expectations for 12 months ahead are expected at 2.6% in October, from 2.7% in September.
ECB policymakers are confident that inflation will hover around the central bank’s 2% target in the coming months.

Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for October are scheduled for release today.
PSCE is expected to have increased by 6.3% y/y in October, from 6.1% y/y in September.
The monthly budget balance data for October is also due for release; the budget deficit was R15.4bn in September.
The SA trade surplus is likely to have widened to R23.5bn for October, from a surplus of R21.8bn in September.

Following US President Trump’s announcement that South Africa would not be invited to the 2026 G20 Summit in Miami, Germany said it would seek to persuade him to reverse the decision.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz argued that the G20, and the broader G7/G20 framework, should remain inclusive, stressing that there is “no good reason” to shrink its membership.
Merz noted he would personally raise the issue with President Trump and advocate for all founding members, including SA, to participate in the 2026 Summit.
Germany’s position reflects wider concerns among some G20 members that excluding SA would undermine the cohesion and legitimacy of the multilateral group.

Brent crude oil is currently at $63.57/bbl; ($63.34/bbl*).
Gold is at $4184/oz ($4157/oz*).
SA CDS 147bps*, Brazil 142bps* and Turkey 238bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.00%*, German bund at 2.68%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.68%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.56%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF