In the loop 25 November 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.29/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.31/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.7%), ZAR (+0.4%) and HUF (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.3%), MXN (-0.1%) and CLP (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said yesterday that the ECB must continue monitoring the lingering effects of the post-Covid inflation surge, including elevated food prices and persistent services inflation.
Policymakers are particularly focused on still-strong services costs and survey evidence showing that households remain concerned about further price increases in the Eurozone.
The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting in December.
Decisions are expected to remain data-dependent and taken on a flexible, meeting-by-meeting basis.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he is advocating for an interest rate cut at the December FOMC meeting due to ongoing weakness in the US labour market.
Waller noted that recent data indicates continued softness in employment conditions.
He expects the Fed to shift to a more explicit meeting-by-meeting approach from January, once it receives the large volume of economic data delayed by the government shutdown.
However, he cautioned that this backlog of data, due to be released after the December meeting, could complicate the January policy decision.
Waller added that he does not expect a meaningful improvement in the labour market over the next six to eight weeks.
Labour statistics for October and November will be released on 16 December, and November consumer price data on 18 December.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has signalled support for lowering interest rates at next month’s policy meeting, citing a sudden deterioration in the US job market.
Daly warned that the labour market is now “vulnerable enough” that it risks a nonlinear decline if conditions should worsen further.
She added that the risk of an inflation resurgence is comparatively low.
Daly also reiterated her view that the Fed can return inflation to its 2% target without triggering a rise in unemployment, noting that failing to achieve this balance would amount to a policy failure.

The US Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for November, due out today, is expected to have slipped.
Sentiment remains primarily driven by jobs and incomes and, with labour market conditions having weakened during the shutdown, any recovery is likely to be gradual, likely keeping confidence muted.
US retail sales for September likely posted growth, supported in part by a surge in auto purchases as buyers rushed to secure electric vehicles before federal subsidies expired at the end of the month.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index for September is also scheduled for release today; the house price index increased by 1.5% y/y in August, after having increased by 1.6% y/y in July.
The FHFA house price index is likely to have increased by 0.2% m/m in September, following a 0.4% m/m increase in August.

Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for September is scheduled for release today.
The leading indicator increased for a third consecutive month in August, to 115.5, from 113.6 in July.

Brent crude oil is currently at $63.08/bbl; ($63.37/bbl*).
Gold is at $4145/oz ($4136/oz*).
SA CDS 146bps*, Brazil 145bps* and Turkey 243bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.02%*, German bund at 2.69%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.73%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.61%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

09h00: SA SARB leading indicator (September)
15h30: US retail sales (September), PPI (September)
16h00: US FHFA house price index (September), S&P Cotality house price index (September)
17h00: US business inventories (August), Conference Board consumer confidence index (November)

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