In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.17/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.20/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the PLN (+0.8%), CZK (+0.7%) and HUF (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-1.5%), RUB (-0.5%) and COP (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) today cut its benchmark interest rate by 25bps, to 2.25%, as growth remains weak.
• The RBNZ’s new forecasts indicate a small chance of one more 25bps cut next year.
• The committee noted future moves as dependent on how the outlook for medium-term inflation and the economy evolves.
• The Central Bank of Sri Lanka held rates at 7.75% for a third straight meeting today.

• UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s upcoming budget is expected to focus on fiscal consolidation amid a significant public finance gap estimated at £22–30bn.
• The Chancellor has pledged to maintain fiscal rules requiring debt to fall as a share of GDP and to avoid borrowing for day-to-day spending.
• While major tax hikes on income tax, VAT, and National Insurance are ruled out, measures such as freezing income tax thresholds, tightening pension tax relief, and extending National Insurance to landlords are expected.
• Property-related levies, including a potential mansion tax, are also under consideration.
• The budget is likely to prioritise efficiency savings and targeted investment in public services, while signalling fiscal discipline.

• The US Conference Board consumer confidence index fell sharply in November, to 88.7, from 95.5 in October. 
• The decline reflects growing anxiety about both the labour market and the broader economy. 
• The report showed that a still-elevated share of consumers believe jobs are currently hard to find.
• Expectations for the next six months dropped to their lowest level since April, while assessments of present conditions sank to a more than one-year low. 
• In addition, the share of consumers expecting their income to rise over the next six months fell to its weakest point since February 2023. 
• This underscores deteriorating views on current and future business conditions.
• The US S&P Cotality CS house price index slowed for the eight consecutive month, rising 1.3% y/y in September, down from 1.5% y/y in August.
• The FHFA house price index flatlined in September, after having increased by 0.4% m/m in August.

• The latest Fed Beige Book is scheduled for release today.
• It is expected to underscore ongoing softness in employment and overall economic activity.

• Locally, it’s a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 16.0% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 58.7% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $62.72/bbl; ($62.48/bbl*).
• Gold is at $4165/oz ($4130/oz*).
• SA CDS 148bps*, Brazil 145bps* and Turkey 242bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 3.99%*, German bund at 2.67%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.71%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.59%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

• 14h00: US MBA mortgage applications (21 November)
• 14h30: UK Budget
• 15h30: US initial jobless claims (22 November), durable goods orders (September)
• 21h00: US Fed Beige Book

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