In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.97/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.99/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.7%), ZAR (+0.4%) and PLN (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.7%), BRL (-0.6%) and PEN (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

• Central bank watch: the Fed yesterday delivered its third consecutive 25 bps rate cut, lowering the Fed funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%.
• The FOMC voted 9-3 in favour of the move, with dissenting views from both hawkish and dovish policymakers, underscoring divisions within the committee. 
• The updated dot plot showed that policymakers still expect just one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, unchanged from the September projections. 
• The Fed said that “available indicators” point to economic activity expanding at a moderate pace, while inflation “has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated”. 
• It also authorised new purchases of short-term Treasury securities to maintain an “ample” level of bank reserves.

• The Bank of Canada (BOC) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged.
• The BOC yesterday said current borrowing costs remain appropriate to offset the economic damage from the trade war. 
• Governor Tiff Macklem noted recent data as showing the economy to be “proving resilient overall”.
• He expects growth to be “modest”, with inflation likely to remain close to the bank’s 2% target. 

• The Brazilian Central Bank also kept rates on hold yesterday.
• The bank refrained from indicating the start of easing is near as inflation forecasts run above target.

• The UK housing market continued to soften in November, with both agreed sales and buyer enquiries declining, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).
• London was the most affected by the government’s recent budget tax measures, recording a net balance of -44% for house prices during the month. 
• RICS said the market has been struggling to gain momentum for several months and noted that the latest budget announcements are unlikely to materially change that outlook.

• ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy De Galhau signalled that the ECB should keep interest rates unchanged for now.
• He described a hold as the prudent course while inflation hovers close to target and the outlook remains uncertain.
• He stressed that the Governing Council’s approach is data?dependent and meeting?by?meeting, with full optionality preserved.
• He noted that the only “fixed figure” is the 2% inflation target, not any predetermined terminal rate.

• The US trade balance for September is due for release today.
• The trade deficit is expected to have widened to $63.0bn in September, from a deficit of $59.6bn in August.

• Locally, mining production for October is due out today; production increased by 1.2% y/y and 2.2% m/n in September.
• Manufacturing production for October is also scheduled for release; production is expected to have decreased by 1.7% y/y in October, after having increased by 0.3% y/y in September. 
• On a m/m basis, manufacturing production declined by 0.5% in September.
• Stats SA releases the non-farm payrolls for Q3:25 today.

• Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 16.8% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and up by 60.6% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $62.13/bbl; ($62.21/bbl*).
• Gold is at $4211/oz ($4228/oz*).
• SA CDS 140bps*, Brazil 143bps* and Turkey 224bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.14%*, German bund at 2.85%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.61%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.49%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

• 11h30: SA mining production (October), non-farm payrolls (Q3:25), SACCI business confidence (November)
• 13h00: SA manufacturing production (October)
• 15h30: US initial jobless claims (6 December), trade balance (September)

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