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Closing the loop 20 May 2022

Closing the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

Market highlights:

  • The rand is unchanged at R15.84/$ (R15.84/$*) today; it ranged between R15.79/$ and R15.89/$.
  • The currency is above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages (R15.26/$, R15.30/$ and R15.24/$).
  • EM currencies are mixed today; the COP (+1.8%), RUB (1.5%) and BRL (+1.4%) are the biggest gainers; the BGN (-0.3%), RON (-0.3%) and TRY (-0.1%) are the biggest losers.
  • UK retail sales contracted by 4.9% y/y in April after having increased by 1.3% y/y in March.
  • On a m/m basis, sales increased by 1.4% by April after having contracted by 1.2% in March.
  • The m/m increase was driven by spending on alcohol, confectionary and tobacco in supermarkets.
  • The increase on these items suggests that people are staying in more to save money.
  • People seem to be spending more for at home-entertainment rather than going out because the cost of living has increased and lower consumer confidence.
  • Spending on these items fell in the early months of 2022 as Britons returned to pubs and restaurants.
  • Several PMI reports are due out next week; the survey data is expected to provide clues on the economic impact of the war.
  • The UK May manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to have slipped.
  • The EU PMI reports are also likely to have deteriorated in May, albeit remaining above the 50-benchmark line.
  • The US PMI data are expected to have reported a slippage in May.
  • Locally, it was a quiet day as far as data releases were concerned.
  • Stage 2 loadshedding will be implemented from 17h00 until 22h00 due to capacity constraints.
  • Loadshedding is expected over the weekend evenings as well.
  • S&P Ratings Agency reviews its SA ratings tonight; no change is expected.
  • We look to the SARB’s leading indicator for March next week; the index slipped marginally to 127.2 pts in February from 127.3 pts in January.
  • The April PPI is also due out next week and is expected to have increased to 12.2% y/y from 11.9% y/y in March.
  • On a m/m basis, PPI is expected to have moderated to 1.2% in April from 2.5% in March.
  • The oil price is down by 0.1% today, and up by 44% in the year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down by 0.3% today, and up by 0.4% in the year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is at $111.89/bbl ($112.04/bbl*).
  • Gold price is at $1836/oz ($1843/oz*). 
  • SA CDS is at 272bps (279bps*), Brazil 245bps (251bps*), Turkey 715bps (729bps*).
  • Yields: US 10yr at 2.82% (2.83%*), German bund at 0.949% (0.949%*) and SA 10-year generic at 10.24% (10.29%*), SA’s R186 is at 8.20% (8.26%*).
  • The JSE ALSI is down by 0.6% today (-1.2%*).

* Denotes yesterday close. 

Key events and data:

  • On Monday: No data releases

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