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In the loop 29 November 2021

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.18/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.28/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the BGN (+1.0%), RON (+0.9%) and CZK (+0.4%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the TRY (-2.7%), ZAR (-2.2%) and MXN (-1.6%) were amongst the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
  • Markets have stabilised somewhat as the newly detected variant, Omicron, reportedly may well not cause severe disease.
  • Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 261.76 million, while the death toll has surpassed 5.21 million; recoveries are at 236.39 million.
  • The US has 49.09 million cases, accounting for 18% of global cases; the US death toll is 799,414. 
  • India has 34.58 million cases and 468,790 deaths; Brazil has 22.08 million cases and 614,314 deaths.
  • Further cases of the Omicron variant were found around the world yesterday.
  • The US, the EU, the UK, Australia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and many others have limited travel and/or imposed quarantines on individuals travelling from southern Africa.
  • Singapore and India and others are assessing restrictions.
  • Switzerland has also restricted travel to non-African nations where cases have been detected.
  • Denmark and Malaysia have introduced mandatory tests and quarantines for travellers from affected countries.
  • US infectious disease specialist Anthony Fauci has said that the new variant’s number of mutations were “troublesome”.
  • US President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will appear before the Senate this week to discuss the US government's response to the pandemic.
  • US non-farm payrolls, due out this week, are expected to have increased by 535,000 in November; the unemployment rate is expected to have slipped to 4.5% in November, from 4.6% in October.
  • US consumer confidence is also due out, as is home price data.
  • Eurozone CPI inflation, due out tomorrow, is expected to have increased to 4.5% y/y in November, from 4.1% y/y in October.
  • UK house prices for November will likely show a cooling in y/y growth.
  • Africa’s Covid-19 cases are at 8.71 million; fatalities are at 223,354.
  • Morocco has 949,732 reported cases, Nigeria 213,982, Ghana 130,920, Kenya 254,951.
  • Several countries have banned travel from South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique and Malawi.
  • SA has started discussions with countries that have imposed bans with the view to reconsider.
  • The WHO has appealed to world leaders not to engage in “knee-jerk reactions”, and cautioned against travel bans.
  • SA has the 18th highest caseload, at 2.961 million; 2,858 new cases were reported yesterday.
  • Active cases are at 23,838; Gauteng leads the way, with 12,312 active cases, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 4,711.
  • The identification of Omicron has coincided with a sudden rise in infections in SA, predominantly in Gauteng.
  • Infections have also been rising in other provinces.
  • Cases have increased by an average of 1,600 in the last 7 days, compared to 500 new infections in the previous week, and 275 in the week before that.
  • Covid-19 deaths rose by 6 yesterday, to 89,797; 2.847 million people (or 96.2%) have recovered from the virus.
  • 19.413 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 29,245 tests were conducted yesterday.
  • The SA positivity rate increased to 9.8% from 2% in less than a week, which signals an extremely sharp rise in infections in a short space of time.
  • If infections continue to increase at this rate, a 4th wave is imminent.
  • 25.288 million vaccines have been administered in SA to date; 11,898 vaccines were administered yesterday.
  • The president has announced a task team to look at making vaccinations mandatory for certain sectors.
  • SA remains on lockdown Level 1; the curfew from midnight to 4am remains in place; this will be reviewed in a week.
  • The October M3 and PSCE data is due out tomorrow; PSCE likely increased by 1.75% y/y, from September’s increase of 1.6% y/y.
  • The October trade balance likely increased to R23bn, from R22.2bn in September.
  • The BER’s manufacturing PMI for November is also due out, as is the industry-wide PMI.
  • The November Naamsa vehicle sales and the Q3:21 labour market data is also due out this week.
  • Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 44.8% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 5.5% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $75.03/bbl; ($72.72/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1794/oz ($1802/oz*).
  • SA CDS 248bps*, lower than Brazil 266bps* and Turkey 499bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.47%*, German bund at -0.335%* and SA 10-year generic at 10.32%*, SA’s R186 at 8.17%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 11h30: UK consumer credit (October)
  • 12h00: Eurozone economic and consumer confidence (November)

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