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Standard Bank Group
04 July 2019

Confidence still soft

Shireen Darmalingam

  • The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) business confidence index for June remained below the benchmark 100, at 93.3 pts (93.0 pts in May). It’s been below 95 pts for five months now. The low was 89.6 pts in August 2017.
  • Economic growth remains weak, and power cuts in H1:19 failed to support this index.
  • Business confidence is still soft, the mining and manufacturing sectors are still underperforming after their slump in Q1:19. Also “weak sentiment threatens to derail a sustainable recovery in the two sectors that account for 23% of GDP”, according to SACCI.
  • This June SACCI outcome echoes the BER business confidence measure of 28 pts in Q2:19, the same as in Q1:19. BER is currently at a two-year low. Most of SA’s surveyed sectors were below par in Q2:19.
  • We nevertheless see the rand at R13.80/$ by year-end, contingent on reforms in H2:19 and a likely recovery in business confidence.

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