Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Corporate Commissioned Research
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
The SA Daily 18 January 2019

SARB trims 2019 GDP

Shireen Darmalingam

  • The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced the first repo rate decision for 2019 yesterday and, as expected, kept the repo rate at 6.75%. The market looked to the statement to gauge whether the bank would maintain a hawkish tone, especially in the context of slowing global growth.
  • The SARB noted moderate upside risks to domestic inflation but revised the estimate for 2019 to 4.8% from 5.5%.
  • We expect inflation to remain comfortably within the 3% to 6% target band in 2019, and foresee an average of 5.1%.
  • Governor Kganyago noted downward revisions to economic growth for 2019. The bank now expects GDP growth of 1.7%, from a previous estimate of 1.9%. We also see the risks as to the downside, and pencil in GDP growth of 1.3% for 2019.
  • We are concerned about elevated SA policy and political uncertainty, as well as slowing global growth. Negative ratings action by Moody’s would add to domestic risk.

Read PDF