In the loop 14 October 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.36/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.29/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ARS (+5.3%), ZAR (+1.2%) and BRL (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers; the TWD (-0.5%), BGN (-0.4%) and CZK (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

UK labour market data is in the spotlight today and will be closely watched by the BOE.
The ILO unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.7%.
The response rate to the Labour Force Survey remains low by historical standards.
When considered with a broader set of indicators, all signs point to the labour market operating below full employment.
The BOE is widely anticipated to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged next month.

The Eurozone ZEW expectations survey for October is on the cards today, the index increased to 26.1 in September, from 25.1 in August.
The German ZEW economic expectations index for October is also due out today; the index rose more than expected in September, to 37.3, from 34.7 in August.

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson commented yesterday she would support further monetary easing beyond the recent 25 bps rate cut.
She signalled openness to two additional cuts this year.
Paulson warned that labour market risks are increasing, and that maintaining employment stability should be a key policy priority.
Paulson noted that the inflationary impact of tariffs is likely to fade and that the Fed should “look through” them.
She added that policy remains only modestly restrictive.
While advocating further easing, she cautioned against moving too aggressively given the uncertainty about the neutral rate.
She instead urged for a gradual approach, consistent with the Fed’s projections.

As the US government shutdown extends into its third week, several key economic releases, including CPI, PPI and retail sales, will be delayed.
In the absence of major data, the attention will turn to other releases such as the Beige Book and the NFIB small business optimism index.
The NFIB optimism index likely, due today, edged down to 100.5 in September, from 100.8 in August.

Locally, the August mining production data will be released today and is expected to show a 1.7% y/y increase, following a 4.4% y/y rise in July.
On a m/m basis, mining output grew by 1.0% in July.
The SACCI business confidence index for September is also due for release today.
Confidence rose to a four-month high in July, reflecting a somewhat improved operating environment despite ongoing tariff risks.

Brent crude oil is currently at $63.30/bbl; ($63.32/bbl*).
Gold is at $4170/oz ($4110/oz*).
SA CDS 172bps*, Brazil 164bps* and Turkey 265bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.03%*, German bund at 2.63%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.22%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.10%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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