In the loop 01 July 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.41/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.39/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+1.0%), MXN (+0.3%) and BRL (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-2.0%), HUF (-0.6%) and KRW (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

Iran war: disagreements continued over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and the sequencing of broader peace negotiations.
President Trump said that talks were taking place at Iran's request and described the Doha meetings as potentially important.
Iranian officials have said that no direct negotiations with US representatives were scheduled and that their delegation was in Qatar primarily to oversee implementation of the existing MoU.

ECB Forum: discussions focused on how Europe can strengthen long-term growth and resilience, while maintaining financial and price stability in an environment of elevated geopolitical uncertainty.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane yesterday cautioned that inflation risks remain elevated despite the recent decline in oil prices.
Lane noted that energy prices are still expected to remain above their pre-war levels for several years, representing an ongoing cost shock to the Eurozone economy.
Although lower oil prices have improved the outlook, the energy shock has yet to fully filter through the economy, and could keep inflation elevated.
Lane also highlighted the risk of second-round inflation effects, whereby higher energy costs feed into broader prices and wage negotiations over time.

The Eurozone CPI report for June is the key data release in the region today.
Headline CPI is expected to have moderated to 3.0% y/y in June, from 3.2% y/y in May.
The headline decline should be largely driven by fuel costs.
Core CPI is expected to come in at 2.5% y/y in June, from 2.6% y/y in May.

BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden warned that the growing use of autonomous AI agents in financial markets could amplify volatility and potentially worsen future market crises.
While AI is currently used mainly for low-risk tasks, Breeden noted that autonomous agents could trigger herd behaviour that amplifies market volatility and sell-offs.
She noted that the BOE is conducting simulations and stress-testing exercises to better understand how AI-driven behaviour could affect financial markets and whether additional regulatory safeguards may be required.

The US ADP private sector payroll report for June is due out; private payrolls are expected to have increased by 120k in June, after having increased by 122k in May.

Locally, the BER manufacturing PMI for June is due for release today; the index is likely to have slipped to 50.0 in June, from 60.8 in May.
The June Naamsa vehicle sales are also on the cards today; vehicle sales increased by 12.8% y/y in May.

President Cyril Ramaphosa yesterday reshuffled his cabinet following a request from the DA to revise several of the portfolios allocated to the party.
These changes affect six ministries, including agriculture, forestry and trade.
Willie Aucamp, who previously served as Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, has been appointed Minister of Agriculture, replacing John Steenhuisen.
Steenhuisen has been appointed Deputy Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, succeeding Alexandra Abrahams.
Additional adjustments include the appointment of new ministers and deputy ministers across several portfolios, including trade, education and social development.
The reshuffle comes ahead of SA's local government elections scheduled for 4 November.

Brent crude oil is currently at $73.31/bbl; ($72.92/bbl*).
Gold is at $3976/oz ($4008/oz*).
SA CDS 125bps*, Brazil 125bps* and Turkey 221bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.46%*, German bund at 2.86%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.44%*, SA's R2035 at 8.26%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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