In the loop 18 August 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.56/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R17.59/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the COP (+0.9%), CZK (+0.7%) and PLN (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.5%), IDR (-0.3%) and PHP (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the July FOMC meeting minutes, due on Wednesday, will likely offer insight into how Fed policymakers assessed tariff pass-through, and their risk management approach to policymaking.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to deliver his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
Sweden’s Riksbank is set to keep the policy rate unchanged, at 2%, on Wednesday.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will on Wednesday likely cut rates by 25 bps to support growth.
Bank Indonesia is expected to hold interest rates at 5.25% on Wednesday to ensure the rupiah’s stability as higher US tariffs kick in.

China’s commercial banks are expected to set their loan prime rates on Wednesday.
Japan’s CPI for July may show that inflation eased in the month.

The Eurozone trade balance for June is due today; the surplus is expected to have narrowed in June.
The final Eurozone CPI for July, scheduled for release on Wednesday, is likely to confirm headline inflation as having remained unchanged at 2.0% y/y in July.
The UK's CPI likely accelerated further in July, keeping the BOE on edge. The BOE expects CPI to peak at 4% in September.
The Eurozone and UK PMI data releases for August are due out this week.
The Eurozone composite PMI survey for August will provide an indication of how well the economy is holding up after the boost to activity.
The UK composite PMI survey is likely to continue its recovery.

The US NAHB housing market index for August is due for release today.
Builder confidence likely improved, albeit slightly, in August, after increasing in July after the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”.
Housing starts and building permits for July are due out tomorrow.
Both housing starts and building permits are likely to have slipped in July.
US existing home sales for July are due out on Thursday; existing home sales are expected to have declined by 0.4% m/m in July.
The S&P Global PMIs for August are also due out Thursday.

Locally, the July CPI is in the spotlight on Wednesday and is expected to at 3.5% y/y, from 3.0% y/y in June.
On a m/m basis, CPI is likely to have increased by 0.7% in July, after having increased by 0.3% in June.
Core CPI is expected to come in at 3.0% y/y in July, from 2.9% y/y in June.

Brent crude oil is currently at $65.89/bbl; ($65.85/bbl*).
Gold is at $3350/oz ($3336/oz*).
SA CDS 172bps*, Brazil 137bps* and Turkey 267bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.31%*, German bund at 2.78%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.67%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.58%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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