In the loop 22 June 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.42/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.45/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the KRW (+0.6%), HUF (+0.3%) and BRL (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-0.9%), COP (-0.6%) and CLP (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

Iran war: high-level talks between the US and Iran began in Switzerland over the weekend.
The talks aimed to build on an MoU signed last week that extended a fragile ceasefire and set a 60-day window for reaching a final settlement.
At the same time, President Trump issued new threats of military action against Iran over its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran announced it had again restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, citing alleged ceasefire violations.
Discussions are expected to continue this week.

Central bank watch: the Bank of Thailand is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold on Wednesday, with inflation still within its target band.

China's banks held loan prime rates steady today as they await a cue from the People's Bank of China.

The Eurozone consumer sentiment index for June is on the cards today; sentiment is likely to have increased to -17.8 in June, from -19.0 in May.
The June composite PMI is due tomorrow and is likely to have increased to 49.2, from 48.5 in May.
The UK composite PMI for June, also scheduled for tomorrow, is expected to have increased to 50.5, from 49.7 in May, despite uncertainty about the Middle East war.
The fall in energy prices offered relief to UK businesses in June.
Germany's May Ifo business climate survey, due out on Wednesday, should provide new insights into economic momentum in Q2:26 amid higher energy prices.
The ECB's 1-year inflation expectations, due on Friday, are likely to have moderated to 3.9% in May, from 4.0% in April.
The 3-year inflation expectations are also expected to have moderated in May, to 2.8%, from 2.9% in April.

The US composite PMI for June, scheduled for tomorrow, is expected to have increased to 52.1, from 51.5 in May.
Both the manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to have remained in expansion.
US new home sales for May are scheduled for release on Wednesday and are expected to have increased by 3.7% m/m, following a 6.2% m/m decline in April.
Homebuilders reported improved prospective buyer traffic as well as an uptick in sales.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge for May, the core PCE deflator, due on Thursday, is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m, after having increased by 0.2% m/m in April.
Thursday will also see the release of the third estimate of Q1:26 GDP, with real growth coming in at around 1.6% q/q, unchanged from the previous estimate.
The University of Michigan consumer index for June (final estimate), due for release on Friday, is expected to have increased to 50.0, from 44.8 in May.
Sentiment is likely to have been boosted by the peace deal between the US and Iran signed last week.
The boost, however, is likely to be limited if consumers remain focused on domestic concerns, including inflation and interest rates.

Locally, the SARB leading indicator for April is due for release tomorrow; the leading indicator increased to 123.0 in March, from 120.1 in February.
The Q2:26 BER consumer confidence index is also on the cards tomorrow; the index improved to -7 in Q1:26, from -9.3 in Q4:25.
The May PPI is scheduled for release on Thursday and is expected to come in at 6.7% y/y, after having increased by 4.8% y/y in April.

Brent crude oil is currently at $79.40/bbl; ($80.57/bbl*).
Gold is at $4176/oz ($4155/oz*).
SA CDS 124bps*, Brazil 125bps* and Turkey 219bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.45%*, German bund at 2.98%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.48%*, SA's R2035 at 8.29%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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