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In the loop 15 June 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.13/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.29/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the HUF (+1.5%), ZAR (+1.5%) and COP (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.5%) and TRY (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • Iran war: the US and Iran have announced that a framework agreement to end the roughly four-month conflict has been reached.
  • Both sides committed to the “immediate and permanent termination” of military operations across all fronts, including Lebanon.
  • The proposed deal includes key de-escalatory measures, such as the removal of the US naval blockade, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a ceasefire arrangement to stabilise regional shipping and energy flows.
  • A formal signing is scheduled for 19 June in Switzerland.
 
  • Central bank watch: the BOJ is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps tomorrow on the back of solid wage growth and rising price pressures.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to hold rates steady tomorrow.
  • The US Fed FOMC will meet on Wednesday to decide on rates and is expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged.
  • Investors will keep an eye on the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference after the meeting.
  • It's likely that he will avoid providing explicit guidance on the policy path going forward.
  • The Swedish Riksbank, the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England will all meet this week and are expected to hold rates steady.
  • The BOE will have new CPI and labour market data before its decision. 
  • Both releases are likely to reinforce its current wait-and-see and steady approach.
  • Bank Indonesia is largely expected to deliver another 50 bps cut on Thursday. 
  • The Bank of Russia is largely expected to cut its key rate on Friday.
  • The central banks of the Philippines and Pakistan will likely raise rates this week on the back of inflationary pressures.
 
  • China's activity data for May this week will likely show domestic demand remaining a drag on growth, despite support from exports.
  • Investment continues to contract.
 
  • Eurozone CPI for May is on the cards on Wednesday and likely to come in at 3.2% y/y in May, the same as in April.
  • UK CPI for May, due on Wednesday, is expected to have increased to 3.0% y/y in May, from a 2.8% y/y increase April.
  • The UK April labour market data will be released on Thursday, with y/y regular private sector pay growth in the three months to April expected to moderate to 2.9% y/y, from 3.0% y/y in the three months to March.
 
  • The US Empire State manufacturing index for June, due out today, is likely to have fallen to 13.5, from 19.6 in May. 
  • The survey data in May pointed to sharply accelerating new orders and shipments, which is expected to have softened in June.
  • Industrial production for May, also due out today, is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m, from 0.7% in April.
  • The NAHB housing market index for June is expected to be unchanged, at 37, in May.
  • In June, confidence among builders of new single-family homes could receive some support from May's stronger-than-expected payrolls.
  • US housing starts in May are scheduled for release tomorrow; housing starts likely slowed in May after a  positive start to the year. 
  • Declining permit issuance suggests builders have a more cautious outlook.
  • Building permits are also likely to come in softer in May.
  • Retail sales for May are due out on Wednesday; sales are likely to have increased by 0.5% m/m in May, matching April's increase.
  • Higher gasoline prices likely provided a boost in May, with prices at the pump rising 7.0%.
 
  • Locally, the May CPI is due on Wednesday and is expected to come in at 4.7% y/y, from 4.0% y/y in April. 
  • On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.8%, after having increased by 1.1% m/m in April.
  • Core CPI is projected at 3.8% y/y in May, from 3.6% y/y in April.
  • Also due Wednesday, April retail sales are expected to reflect growth of 2.0% y/y, down from a 2.6% y/y increase in March.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 37.2% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 0.3% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $83.53/bbl; ($87.33/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4331/oz ($4219/oz*).
  • SA CDS 125bps*, Brazil 126bps* and Turkey 229bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.47%*, German bund at 2.99%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.68%*, SA's R2035 at 8.49%.
 

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

  • 11h00: Eurozone industrial production, trade balance (April)
  • 14h30: US Empire manufacturing index (June)
  • 15h15: US industrial production, capacity utilisation (May)
  • 16h00: US NAHB housing market index (June)
 

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