In the loop 27 July 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.69/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.83/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the KRW (+0.9%), HUF (+0.8%) and RUB (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-0.6%), ARS (-0.5%) and TWD (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: Iran has confirmed that no new US attacks have occurred since 24 July, and it subsequently suspended its retaliatory attacks on US allies in the region, creating the first meaningful pause in hostilities in weeks.
Diplomatic contacts intensified over the weekend.
Reports indicated progress in talks concerning maritime security, particularly the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Central bank watch: the US FOMC is likely to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged on Wednesday.
The BOE is largely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Thursday, likely citing softer-than-expected inflation data and a loose labour market.
The BOJ will probably keep rates steady on Friday after its June hike.
The central bank of Pakistan will also likely sit pat on rates today.

The German IFO business climate index for July, due out today, is expected to have increased to 86.0, from 85.6 in June.
The Eurozone consumer sentiment index for July (final estimate) is due out tomorrow; sentiment is likely to have remained unchanged, at -15.9 in July, from the previous estimate, and from -17.6 in June.
Economic confidence is expected to have increased to 96.0 in July, from 95.0 in June.
The preliminary Eurozone Q2:26 GDP is due out; GDP is expected to have risen by 0.2% q/q in Q2:26, after having flatlined in Q1:26.
The unemployment rate for June is largely expected to have remained unchanged, at 6.2%.
The Eurozone CPI report for July will be released on Friday; headline CPI is expected to have increased to 2.9% y/y in July, from 2.8% y/y in June.
Core CPI is expected to come in at 2.4% y/ in July, matching June's increase.

The US S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index for May is due for release tomorrow and is expected to show a lift in house price growth.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for July will also be published tomorrow.
The consumer sentiment index is likely to have increased to 92.0 in July, from 91.2 in June.
The US Fed's preferred inflation gauge for June, the core PCE deflator, due on Thursday, is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m, after having increased by 0.3% m/m in May.
Thursday will also see the release of the first estimate of Q2:26 GDP, with real growth likely coming in at around 2.1% q/q, the same as in Q1:26.
Consumer spending is likely to have increased in Q2.
The University of Michigan consumer index for July (final estimate), due for release on Friday, is expected to have moderated to 54.0, from 54.4 (previous estimate).
Consumers remain concerned about the inflation outlook and borrowing costs.

Locally, the SARB leading indicator for May is due for release tomorrow; the leading indicator slipped to 118.0 in April, from 121.1 in March.
The M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for June are scheduled for release on Wednesday.
PSCE is expected to have increased by 8.25% y/y in June, down from 8.57% y/y in May.
The June PPI is due out on Thursday and is expected at 7.6% y/y, after having increased by 7.8% y/y in May.
The budget balance for June is also scheduled for release.
The June trade balance is due for release on Friday; the trade balance is expected to have swung into a surplus of R3.5bn in June, from a deficit of R1.8bn in May.

Brent crude oil is currently at $92.26/bbl; ($96.78/bbl*).
Gold is at $4091/oz ($4052/oz*).
SA CDS 134bps*, Brazil 124bps* and Turkey 244bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.67%*, German bund at 3.17%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.90%*, SA's R2035 at 8.72%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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