In the loop 06 December 2023

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.93/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R18.95/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+0.1%), PLN (+0.1%) and MXN (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the THB (-0.7%), KRW (-0.2%) and MYR (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

The US JOLTS job openings came in lower than expected in October, at 8.733 million, from a downwardly revised 9.350 million in September.
Job openings are now at their lowest level since early 2021.
The decline in job openings was broad-based across sectors in October; the skilled services industries remain the primary source of job openings.
The largest declines were noted in health care and social assistance (-236k), finance and insurance (-168k), and real-estate, rentals and leasing (-49k).
The ratio of job openings per unemployed worker was at 1.34 in October.
While it remains elevated, relative to the 1.2 ratio from 2019, it is below what would be expected based on the decade-long pre-pandemic trend.
The US ADP employment report for November, a precursor to the November non-farm payrolls report, is scheduled for release today.
Private payrolls are likely to have increased by 130k in November, from 113k in October.

The US ISM services increased by more than expected in November, to 52.7, from 51.8 in October.
The increase came on the back of an improvement in business activity; the employment sub-index also picked up in November.
A gauge of orders placed with service providers, a general proxy of future demand, was unchanged in November.

The US October trade balance is due out today; the deficit is likely to have widened in October, driven by a decrease in exports and a modest increase in imports.

Australian GDP increased by 0.2% q/q (sa) in Q3:23, after having increased by 0.4% q/q (sa) in Q2:23.
The softer growth in Q3:23 came on the back of restrained consumer spending.
Consumers have been depleting their savings amid rising borrowing costs and elevated inflation.
The RBA this week kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, at a 12-year high of 4.35%.

Eurozone retail sales for October are scheduled for release today; sales are likely to have increased by 0.2% m/m, after having fallen by 0.3% m/m in September.
On a y/y basis, sales are likely to have declined by 1.1% in October, following a 2.9% decline in September.

Eskom: Stage 3 loadshedding will be in place until 4pm today; Stage 4 loadshedding will follow thereafter until 5am tomorrow.

Brent crude oil is currently at $77.22/bbl; ($77.20/bbl*).
Gold is at $2023/oz ($2017/oz*).
SA CDS 238bps*, Brazil 145bps* and Turkey 338bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.16%*, German bund at 2.24%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.28%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.01%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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