In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.06/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.10/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+4.8%), MXN (+1.0%) and THB (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-1.3%), COP (-0.4%) and PLN (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• Japan’s unemployment rate increased to 2.5% in October, from 2.4% in September.
• Japan's unemployment rate peaked at 3.1% in late 2021 under the strains of the Covid pandemic and business and travel restrictions.
• The job-to-applicant ratio edged up to 1.25 in October, from 1.24 in September.
• Retail sales increased less than expected in October, by 1.6% y/y, from an upwardly revised 0.7% y/y in September.
• On a m/m basis, sales were up by 0.1% in October, after falling by 2.2% in September.

• Eurozone inflation expectations for 1 year and 3 years ahead for October are scheduled for release later today.
• One-year-ahead inflation expectations are expected at 2.3% in October, from 2.4% in September.
• Three-year-ahead inflation expectations are likely to have remained unchanged at 2.1% in October.

• Eurozone CPI for November likely increased to above the ECB’s 2% inflation target.
• CPI is expected to come in at 2.3% y/y in November on the back of higher fuel costs, from 2.0% y/y in October.
• Base effects are behind the y/y increase in inflation; as such, its unlikely to cause much concern among ECB policymakers.
• Core CPI is likely to have increased to 2.8% y/y in November, from 2.7% in October.
• The ECB is expected to continue with its rate cutting cycle at the upcoming policy meeting on 12 December.

• Several Eurozone countries are releasing GDP data for Q3:24 today.

• Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for October are due out this morning.
• PSCE is likely to come in at 4.8% y/y in October, from 4.63% y/y in September.
• The October trade balance is due out later today; a trade surplus of R3.3bn is expected, from R12.8bn in September. 
• The monthly Budget balance data for October is also on the cards; the budget deficit came in at R4.4bn in September.

• Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 4.8% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 29.1% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $73.38/bbl; ($73.28/bbl*).
• Gold is at $2662/oz ($2641/oz*).
• SA CDS 186bps*, Brazil 162bps* and Turkey 257bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.24%*, German bund at 2.12%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.13%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.17%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data:

• 08h00: SA M3 and PSCE (October)
• 11h00: Eurozone ECB 1 yr and 3 yr inflation expectations (October)
• 12h00: Eurozone CPI (November)
• 14h00: SA trade balance (October), monthly budget balance (October)

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