In the loop 19 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R16.25/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.25/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+1.3%) and KRW (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-1.8%), HUF (-0.2%) and PHP (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are down, while the Hang Seng is up.

Iran war: US President Trump has stated that no talks with Iran were either taking place or scheduled.
Iran, however, claimed that the US was seeking renewed negotiations after failing to enforce Iranian concessions, arguing that Washington was now “begging” for talks on Iranian terms.
With negotiations stalled, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained.
Both Washington and Tehran are maintaining hard-line positions; as such; prospects for a near-term breakthrough appear limited.

Central bank watch: the US Fed meeting minutes of the July FOMC meeting are expected to show whether calls for further tightening gained traction, and how officials assessed inflation risks.
Bank Indonesia is likely to leave its key rate unchanged at 5.75% today.

ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn yesterday said that forward guidance should remain an important part of the central bank's toolkit, while preserving policymakers' flexibility to respond to changing conditions.
He noted that guidance can be particularly valuable in the Eurozone when conventional rate cuts are constrained.
He pointed to its effectiveness during the previous low-inflation period in easing financing conditions by influencing bond yields when rates were at the lower bound.
However, Rehn cautioned against relying too heavily on forward guidance, stressing that policymakers must retain the freedom to respond to an uncertain economic environment.
Eurozone CPI of July (final estimate) is due out later today and likely to come in at 2.9% y/y, unchanged from the previous estimate, and from 2.8% y/y June.

UK CPI for July, due out today, is expected to have increased to 2.9% y/y in July, up from 2.6% y/y June.
Household energy bills are likely to have been the main driver of the likely acceleration in July.
On a m/m basis, CPI is likely to have increased by 0.3% in July, following a 0.1% increase in June.
UK house prices for June are also scheduled for release today.

Locally, the July CPI is on the cards today and is expected at 4.5% y/y, from 5.0% y/y in June.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.4%, after having increased by 0.7% m/m in June.
Core CPI is projected at 4.2% y/y in July, up from 4.1% y/y in June.
Retail sales for June are due out on Wednesday and are expected to reflect growth of 2.5% y/y, up from a 2.3% y/y increase in May.

Brent crude oil is currently at $91.57/bbl; ($91.02/bbl*).
Gold is at $4339/oz ($4334/oz*).
SA CDS 121bps*, Brazil 127bps* and Turkey 223bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.70%*, German bund at 3.25%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.71%*, SA's R2035 at 8.51%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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