In the loop 12 October 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R16.50/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.50/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the COP (+0.9%), BRL (+0.7%) and ZAR (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the MXN (-1.3%), TRY (-0.2%) and PLN (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Hang Seng is up, while the Shanghai Composite is down.

Iran war: regional security risks remained elevated over the weekend, highlighted by a missile attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh.
The war continues to affect shipping routes, energy markets, and regional stability, while policymakers closely monitor the risk of renewed military escalation involving Iran-aligned groups.
The attack on Saudi civilian infrastructure reinforced concerns over the security of key transport and energy hubs in the Gulf, thereby extending geopolitical uncertainty and a risk premium in oil markets.

The IMF and World Bank will hold their annual meetings in Bangkok this week.
The outlook for global growth, inflation, interest rates, and government debt is likely to dominate discussions.
The IMF is expected to publish its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report tomorrow.

Central Bank watch: Singapore's central bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday.

China's trade and inflation data will take centre stage this week.
China's September trade data, due on Wednesday, is expected to show a sharp increase in exports, while imports likely remained resilient.
Strong global demand for AI-related hardware appears to have continued supporting export growth during the month.
CPI for September, also due on Wednesday, is likely to come in at 1.0% y/y, from 0.8% y/y in August.

The UK monthly GDP for August is scheduled for release on Thursday and is likely to have decreased by 0.1% m/m, after having increased by 0.4% m/m in July.
The trade balance for August is also scheduled for release on Thursday; the trade deficit is expected to have widened.
Eurozone CPI of September (final estimate) is due out on Friday and is likely to come in at 3.8% y/y in September, unchanged from the previous estimate, and from 3.2% y/y August.
The monthly trade report for August is expected to continue showing that the Eurozone is offsetting muted demand from the US in the face of higher US tariffs with sales elsewhere.

The US September CPI report will be a key focus this week Wednesday.
Headline inflation is expected to have increased to 3.6% y/y in September, from 3.4% y/y in August.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.6% in September, following a 0.4% increase in August.
The NFIB small business optimism index for September, scheduled for release tomorrow, likely slipped to 98.2, from 98.7 in August.
Existing home sales, also due out tomorrow, are expected to have fallen in September.
Pending home sales increased negligibly in August after declining for two consecutive months; recent data has pointed to further weakness.
Retail sales, due on Thursday, likely increased 0.3% m/m in September, after increasing by 1.2% m/m in August, reflecting higher gasoline prices weighing on consumer demand through the month.
The PPI print for September is expected to come in at 5.4% y/y on Thursday, matching August's print.
The Empire State manufacturing index for October, due out on Thursday, is likely to have improved to 12.6, from 7.6 in September.

Locally, it's a relatively quiet week as far as data releases are concerned.
Mining production for August is due out tomorrow; production declined by 7.5% y/y in July and by 1.9% m/m.

Brent crude oil is currently at $103.58/bbl; ($104.72/bbl*).
Gold is at $4185/oz ($4194/oz*).
SA CDS 135bps*, Brazil 110bps* and Turkey 243bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 5.23%*, German bund at 3.48%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.99%*, SA's R2035 at 8.78%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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