In the loop 17 March 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.21/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R18.19/$*).
EM currencies were largely up on Friday; the BRL (+1.0%), MXN (+0.9%) and CLP (+0.8%) were the biggest gainers; the MYR was down by 0.2%.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai composite are up.

Central bank watch: the Fed and BOE are due to make policy decisions this week on respectively Wednesday and Thursday.
The Fed is expected to hold its Fed funds rate steady on Wednesday.
The BOE is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps this week.
Sweden's Riksbank and the Bank of Russia are likely to keep policy on hold; the Swiss National Bank will likely cut rates this week.
The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday.
The SARB will meet on Thursday; we expect the central bank to cut the repo rate by 25 bps, to 7.25%, although this is a close call.

Japan’s CPI for February is due out on Friday. CPI is likely to show inflation cooling on the surface, but underlying price pressures will probably persist.

The German ZEW expectations survey for March, scheduled for release tomorrow, may have risen on the back of government’s plans for a massive jump in defence and infrastructure spending.
The UK labour data for the three months to January is on the cards for Thursday.
The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.4%, in January.
A low response rate to the Labour Force Survey, however, continues to distort the survey results.

The Empire manufacturing survey for March is due out today; consumer sentiment likely dropped in March.
The US NAHB housing market index for March is also due for release today; sentiment likely remained unchanged.
Housing starts and building permits for February are due out tomorrow.
Housing starts are likely to have increased in February, while building permits are expected to have slipped.
US existing home sales, due out on Thursday, will likely have declined by 3.4% m/m in February, after having decreased by 4.9% m/m in January.

Locally, the BER will release the Q1:25 inflation expectations data today.
The February CPI is due out on Wednesday and is expected to come in higher, at 3.4% y/y, from 3.2% y/y in January.
Core CPI is expected to have remained unchanged, at 3.5% y/y, in February.
The January retail sales are also on the cards for Wednesday; retail sales are likely to have increased by 3.9% y/y in January, following a 3.1% y/y increase in December.

Brent crude oil is currently at $71.11/bbl; ($70.58/bbl*).
Gold is at $2984/oz ($2984/oz*).
SA CDS 204bps*, Brazil 176bps* and Turkey 261bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.31%*, German bund at 2.87%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.60%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.59%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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