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In the loop 09 November 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.48/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.53/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the MXN (+0.7%), PEN (+0.6%) and INR (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the RON (-0.9%), CZK (-0.9%) and PLN (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • Iran war: Tehran reviewed Qatari-mediated proposals for an end to the war while maintaining that its ceasefire conditions must be met before nuclear negotiations can begin.
  • The US intensified pressure through limited strikes and the launch of Task Force Iron Gate, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the two sides were “not on the verge of a breakthrough,” leaving the risk of renewed escalation elevated.
 
  • China's CPI came in at 0.7% y/y in October, down from 0.9% y/y in September. 
  • Higher gasoline prices supported the headline measure, but this was partly offset by a sharper-than-expected decline in food prices, highlighting continued weakness in domestic demand.
  • PPI accelerated to 5.7% y/y in October, from 5.0% y/y in September.
  • The increase was driven largely by higher mining and raw materials prices.
 
  • The UK'S RICS house price balance for October is schedule for release on Thursday. 
  • The UK GDP for Q3:26 too is scheduled for release on Thursday and is likely to have increased by 0.7% q/q, after having increased by 0.5% q/q in Q2:26. 
  • The monthly GDP for September is likely to have flatlined, after having increased by 0.1% m/m in August. 
  • The UK trade balance for September, due out on Thursday, is expected to see the trade deficit widen.
  • The Eurozone GDP data for Q3:26 (second estimate) is on the cards on Friday; growth is expected to have increased by 0.4% q/q in Q3:26, matching Q2:26's increase.
  • Employment data for Q3:26 and the monthly trade report for September are also due out on Friday.
 
  • The US October CPI report will be a key focus tomorrow.
  • Headline inflation is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in October, from a 0.6% m/m increase in September.
  • Core CPI is likely to have increased by 0.2% m/m in October, from 0.3% m/m in September.
  • The US NFIB small business optimism index for October, also scheduled for release tomorrow, likely remained unchanged, at 97.9.
  • Existing home sales, due out on Thursday, are expected to have fallen in October.
  • This is expected as mortgage rates being above 7% has added to affordability constraints.
  • The PPI for October is scheduled for release on Friday and is expected to come in at 6.6% y/y, from 6.3% y/y in September.
 
  • Locally, the SARB's gross and net reserves for October are scheduled for release today. 
  • The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for Q3:26 is scheduled for release tomorrow: the unemployment rate increased to 33.6% in Q2:26, from 32.7% in Q1:26.
  • Manufacturing production for September is also due out tomorrow; production likely declined by 2.0% y/y in September, following a 4.3% y/y decline in August. 
  • Manufacturing output is likely to have increased by 1.5% m/m in September, after falling by 3.1% m/m in August.
  • Mining production for September is due out on Thursday; production declined by 12.7% y/y and by 5.4% m/m in August.
 
  • Results announced by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) announced last night showed that ANC remained the largest party nationally with 30.8% of the vote, down from 46% in 2021. 
  • The ANC retained its lead in Buffalo City and Mangaung.
  • The DA strengthened its position with 24.6%, up from 22% in 2021, and emerging as the largest party in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay, while retaining its outright majority in Cape Town. 
  • The MK Party made significant gains in KwaZulu-Natal, emerging as the leading party in eThekwini. 
  • The results left several major municipalities without outright majorities, setting the stage for coalition negotiations in the weeks ahead and renewed concerns over political stability and service delivery. 
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 61.7% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and down by 4.4% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $98.36/bbl; ($98.32/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4125/oz ($4070/oz*).
  • SA CDS 123bps*, Brazil 149bps* and Turkey 248bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.85%*, German bund at 3.25%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.48%*, SA's R2035 at 8.30%*.
 

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data: 

  • 08h00: SA gross and net reserves (October)
  • 11h30: Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index (November)
 

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