In the loop 04 February 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R15.92/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.98/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the INR (+1.4%), MXN (+0.7%) and ZAR (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-0.9%), RUB (-0.4%) and TRY (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets, the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

China's RatingDog services PMI came in stronger than expected in January.
The services PMI increased to 52.3, from 52.0 in December; the index had declined for four straight months at the end of last year.
The data showed pockets of strength in the Chinese economy, with restaurants, tourism and entertainment remaining resilient.
Recent surveys by the People's Bank of China show that households are increasingly willing to spend on services such as education, healthcare and travel.
However, slumping property prices and a weak jobs market weigh on consumption expenditure.
The composite RatingDog PMI rose to 51.6 in January, from 51.3 in December.
Official PMIs for manufacturing, construction and services all signalled a contraction in January, pointing to a more uncertain start to 2026.

The partial US government shutdown has ended.
The House narrowly passed the Bill to fully fund an array of agencies for the rest of the fiscal year.
Funding for Homeland Security is only until the end of next week; the deal sets up negotiations over the immigration crackdown.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic doesn't see any interest rate cuts for this year.
“I think we have so much momentum in the economy that we need to keep our policy rate in a mildly restrictive stance”, Bostic said at an event earlier this week.
“I think maybe one or two cuts would put us at neutral, for my outlook. And that would make it very unlikely, if we did that, for us to get our inflation back down to our target, or even get it on a trajectory to that”, he warned.
Bostic is due to retire at the end of February.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran has stepped down from the White House's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA).
The unusual arrangement, to take unpaid leave from the CEA while serving at the Fed, drew sharp criticism from the Senate Banking Committee.
Trump had nominated Miran to the Fed Board last year on a temporary basis to fill a seat vacated early by Adriana Kugler.
That term expired in January, but Miran may remain at the Fed until a successor is confirmed by the Senate.
Trump last week announced his nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the Fed's next Chair, and he'll likely appoint him in Miran's seat.

Today sees the release of preliminary Eurozone CPI inflation for January.
Eurozone CPI inflation is expected to have slowed to 1.7% y/y in January, from 1.9% y/y in December.
In m/m terms, inflation likely declined by 0.5% in January, after rising by 0.2% in December.
Core inflation is expected to have remained steady, at 2.3% y/y, in January.
The Eurozone PPI for December will also be released today and is likely to show downward pressure on factory-gate prices.
The PPI is expected to have dipped 0.3% m/m in December, after increasing 0.5% m/m in November.
In annual terms, the PPI is expected at -2.1% for December, after recording -1.7% in November.

Locally, the SA industry-wide S&P Global PMI for January is due out this morning.
The index dipped below the critical 50-mark in the final months of 2025, after tracking at, or above, 50 from April to September.
December's reading came in at 47.7, down from 49.0 in November, signalling contraction.

Brent crude oil is currently at $67.86/bbl; ($67.33/bbl*).
Gold is at $5081/oz ($4929/oz*).
SA CDS 137bps*, Brazil 127bps* and Turkey 217bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.27%*, German bund at 2.89%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.13%*, SA's R2035 at 8.01%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF