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In the loop 24 July 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.52/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.54/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+0.8%), COP (+0.8%) and THB (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-0.2%), TRY (-0.1%) and PLN (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • Central bank watch: the ECB will meet today and is largely expected to hold rates steady. 
  • Markets will also keep a close eye on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference after the interest rate announcement.
  • The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is expected to resume its easing cycle today with a 250 bps cut.
 
  • The EU and US are close to reaching a trade deal that would see a 15% tariff being imposed on the EU.
  • This would be similar to the agreement that the US reached with Japan this week.
  • The trade deal will also likely see both the EU and the US waive tariffs on certain products, which would include aircraft, spirits and medical devices.
  • The EU, however, noted that a final trade agreement would need sign-off from President Trump – and added that his ultimate decision is difficult to predict.
  • President Trump noted that he would not go below 15% in setting his reciprocal tariffs, but could go as high as 50%.
 
  • The Eurozone and UK PMI data releases for July are due out today.
  • The Eurozone composite PMI survey for July will provide an indication of how well the economy is holding up after the boost to activity.
  • The composite index is expected to have increased to 50.7 in July, from 50.6 in June.
  • The manufacturing index is expected to have improved, albeit likely remaining in negative territory in July; the services PMI is also likely to have improved.
  • The UK composite PMI for July is likely to continue its recovery.
  • The composite, manufacturing and services indices are likely to have risen in July.
 
  • The US PMI data releases for July are due out today.
  • The composite index is expected to have slipped in July but likely remaining in expansion.
  • It is expected to come in at 52.7 in July, from 52.9 in June; the services PMI is expected to have improved to 53.0 in July, from 52.9 in June.
  • New home sales are also on the cards and likely improved modestly in June, by 4.3% m/m, after plummeting 13.7% m/m in May.
  • Builders reported low traffic of prospective buyers during the month.
 
  • Locally, it is a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 7.9% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 28.8% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $68.77/bbl; ($68.51/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3380/oz ($3387/oz*).
  • SA CDS 185bps*, Brazil 148bps* and Turkey 280bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.39%*, German bund at 2.63%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.87%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.79%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 10h00: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing, services and composite PMI (July)
  • 10h30: UK S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (July)
  • 13h00: Turkey central bank interest rate decision – 250 bps cut expected
  • 14h15: Eurozone interest rate decision – no change expected
  • 14h30: US initial jobless claims (19 July)
  • 15h45: US S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (July)
  • 16h00: US new home sales (June)
 

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