In the loop 26 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.02/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.92/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+1.2%), ARS (+1.1%) and ZAR (+0.9%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.5%), THB (-0.3%) and CLP (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: Iran announced yesterday that it has rejected a US ceasefire proposal and will continue its attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab states.
Tehran outlined its own conditions for any ceasefire, including firm guarantees that the US and Israel will not resume hostilities.
It also has demands for reparations for war damages and formal recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
This comes in response to a 15-point peace plan put forward by the US.
President Trump has also indicated that any potential agreement must include a strict prohibition on Iran ever acquiring a nuclear weapon or enriching radioactive material, even for civilian purposes.

Central bank watch: The SARB's MPC is due to announce its interest rate decision later today and is largely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.75%.
We expect hawkish rhetoric from the SARB today as the probability of a protracted war with a lasting impact on inflation has risen.
If the war is still ongoing by the time of the May MPC meeting, a rate hike might be debated to avoid any potential second-round inflation pressure.
However, we see the bar for rate hikes as very high.

ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn commented yesterday that monetary policy should not react mechanically to short-term energy price fluctuations stemming from the Iran war.
Monetary policy should instead be guided by the broader macroeconomic outlook and the objective of maintaining price stability.
Rehn emphasised that policymakers must assess the overall economic environment rather than focusing on just oil price swings, reflecting a cautious and measured approach to the current inflation shock.
He added that the medium-term impact of the Iran shock remains uncertain.

US initial jobless claims for the week ending 21 March is due today.
The data is expected to be consistent with limited reports of layoffs, although other indicators suggests that the Iran war is making firms increasingly cautious in hiring.
Initial jobless claims is likely to have remained below year-ago levels for a sixth straight week.
It is expected that 210k claims were filed in the week ending 21 March, compared to 224k recorded in the comparable week of 2025 and 205k claims in the prior week.

Locally, the February PPI is on the cards today and is expected at 2.0% y/y, after having increased by 2.2% y/y in January.
On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have decreased by 0.1% in February, following a 0.2% decline in January.

Oil prices rose in early trading as Iran played down the prospect of a quick deal to end the war.
Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 71.2% year-to-date.
The gold price is down this morning, and up by 3.9% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $104.15/bbl; ($102.22/bbl*).
Gold is at $4488/oz ($4551/oz*).
SA CDS 185bps*, Brazil 134bps* and Turkey 283bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.33%*, German bund at 2.96%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.09%*, SA's R2035 at 8.95%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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