In the loop 18 February 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.01/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.05/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.5%), RUB (+0.4%) and MXN (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the THB (-0.4%), ZAR (-0.4%) and CLP (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets: the Nikkei is up this morning.

Central bank watch: the US FOMC meeting minutes of the 27-28 January policy meeting is due out today.
The minutes are expected to reveal growing support for an extended hold on rates.
In December, a few policymakers who voted to cut described the decision as “finely balanced”.
The January minutes are likely to show a more decisive consensus behind the decision to pause at that meeting,

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged today.
The central bank expects rates to remain on hold for a period while economic activity regathers momentum.
The RBNZ's new forecasts indicate some chance of a 25 bps hike in Q4:25.
It stated that “as the recovery strengthens and inflation falls sustainably toward the target midpoint, monetary policy settings will gradually normalise”.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said there is room for additional interest rate cuts this year, particularly if inflation continues moving toward the central bank's target.
However, he cautioned that services inflation remains elevated.
Goolsbee noted that if tariff?related price increases prove to be a one?time shock, policymakers may have more flexibility to adjust rates.
He added that he wants to see clear evidence that inflation is on track to return to 2% before supporting further rate reductions.

The US NAHB housing market index slipped to 36 (a 5-month low) in December, from 37 in November.
The slippage comes on the back of affordability concerns and high construction costs.
The use of incentives, as well as lower mortgage costs, are expected to the rebound in home sales this year.
Housing starts and building permits data for December are scheduled for release today.

Locally, the January CPI is due for release and is expected to come in at 3.4% y/y, from 3.6% y/y in December.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.1%, after having increased by 0.2% in December.
Core CPI is projected to have remained unchanged at 3.3% y/y in January, matching December's increase.
The December retail sales data, also scheduled for release, may show sales growth of 3.1% y/y, down from a 3.5% y/y increase in November.
On a m/m basis, sales are likely to have declined by 0.1% in December, after having increased by 0.2% m/m in November.
The SACCI business confidence index for December and January are scheduled for release today.
Business confidence increased to a 14-year high of 132.3 in November, from 123.8 in October.

Brent crude oil is currently at $67.59/bbl; ($67.42/bbl*).
Gold is at $4936/oz ($4877/oz*).
SA CDS 139bbps*, Brazil 129bps* and Turkey 218bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.06%*, German bund at 2.73%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.02%*, SA's R2035 at 7.90%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

09h00: UK CPI, PPI, RPI (January)
10h00: SA CPI (January)
11h30: UK house price index (December)
11h30: SA SACCI business confidence index (December, January)
13h00: SA retail sales (December)
14h00: US MBA mortgage applications (13 February)
15h30: US durable goods orders (December), building permits (December), housing starts (December)
16h15: US industrial production (January), manufacturing production (December), capacity utilisation (January)
21h00: US FOMC meeting minutes (27-28 January)

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