Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Equities Enablement Lab
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
In the loop 01 June 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is unchanged this morning, at R16.22/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.22/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the INR (+0.7%), THB (+0.5%) and MYR (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.3%), KRW (-0.7%) and IDR (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while Shanghai Composite is down.
 
  • Iran war: negotiations between the US and Iran towards a ceasefire extension or broader deal have continued, but without a final agreement.
  • Both sides signalled progress, while also hardening their positions.
  • Washington warned that it would be prepared to resume strikes if talks failed, while Tehran stressed that no settlement has been finalised, and it accused the US of imposing “excessive conditions”.
 
  • Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% on Friday.
  • Inflation remains below target, while economic growth is being weighed down by fertilizer and gas shortages linked to the Iran war.
 
  • Japan's wage data, due on Friday, is expected to show that companies increased salaries at the start of the new fiscal year in April as they competed for workers in an increasingly tight labour market.
  • Such an outcome would strengthen the case for the BOJ to increase interest rates at its June policy meeting.
 
  • The Eurozone CPI report for May will be the key data release in the region this week.
  • Higher fuel costs are expected to push headline inflation higher, while household energy bills are also likely to contribute to the increase. 
  • The extent to which rising gas prices are feeding through into broader inflation remains a major uncertainty.
  • Headline CPI is expected to rise to 3.2% y/y in May, from 3.0% y/y in April.
  • The data will be particularly important as it represents the final inflation reading ahead of the ECB's June policy meeting and is likely to be closely scrutinised by policymakers.
  • The UK Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey is scheduled for release on Friday.
  • BOE policymakers will watch the survey closely for signals on inflation persistence risks. 
  • The report is expected to provide insight into how a third straight month of elevated energy prices is influencing business inflation expectations.
 
  • The US ISM manufacturing PMI for May is due out today and is likely to have increased to 53.0, from 52.7 in April. 
  • The JOLTS job openings data for April, due for release tomorrow, likely slipped to 6.857 million in April, from 6.866 million in March.
  • The non-farm payrolls for May are due for release on Friday; payrolls are expected to have increased by 89k, after having increased by 115k in April.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged. at 4.3%.
  • The US ISM services PMI for May is due out Wednesday and is likely to have increased to 53.9, from 53.6 in April.
  • The Fed's Beige Book is due out on Wednesday and is expected to continue characterising economic activity as mixed but generally positive.
 
  • Locally, the BER manufacturing PMI for May is due for release today; the index increased to 52.6 in April, from 49.0 in March.
  • The May Naamsa vehicle sales are also on the cards today; vehicle sales increased by 13.0% y/y in April.
  • The BER will release the business confidence index for Q2:26 tomorrow; the index rose to 47 in Q1:26, from 44 in Q4:25.
  • The industry-wide PMI for May is due out on Wednesday; the index is currently in expansion, at 51.6.
  • Electricity production and consumption for April are due for release on Thursday.
  • The SARB's gross and net reserves for May are scheduled for release on Friday. 
  • Gross reserves came in at $77.09bn in April, while net reserves came in at $73.76bn in April. 
 
  • S&P Global on Friday affirmed SA's sovereign's long-term foreign currency rating at BB, while maintaining a positive outlook.
  • The decision reflects growing confidence in SA's improving fiscal trajectory, underpinned by stronger-than-expected revenue performance, continued expenditure restraint, and a third consecutive primary budget surplus in 2025/26.
  • S&P expects fiscal consolidation to continue over the medium term, leading to a gradual decline in government debt as a share of GDP.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 54.7% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 4.7% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $93.09/bbl; ($92.05/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4521/oz ($4540/oz*).
  • SA CDS 130bps*, Brazil 119bps* and Turkey 240bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.43%*, German bund at 2.93%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.57%*, SA's R2035 at 8.38%*.
 

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: UK Nationwide house price index (May)
  • 10h00: Eurozone S&P Global manufacturing PMI (May – final), ECB 1 yr and 3 yr inflation expectations (April), M3 money supply (April)
  • 10h30: UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI (May – final)
  • 11h00: Eurozone unemployment rate (April)
  • 11h00: SA BER manufacturing PMI (May)
  • 15h45: US Eurozone S&P Global manufacturing PMI (May – final)
  • 16h00: US ISM manufacturing PMI (May)
  • SA Naamsa vehicle sales (May)
 

Read PDF