In the loop 01 October 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R16.42/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.42/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.8%), IDR (+0.6%) and BRL (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.1%), CLP (-0.1%) and PHP (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: Iran confirmed that it had received the US's formal response to Tehran's proposal for a seven-day confidence-building process that could ultimately lead to the reopening of the strait and a gradual restoration of normal maritime traffic.
Reports indicated that both sides broadly agree on the steps required to reduce tensions, however, significant differences remain over implementation.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel yesterday said the central bank must act pre-emptively to prevent high energy prices from feeding into broader inflation and wages.
Schnabel warned that policymakers “cannot wait” for indirect and second-round effects from higher energy costs to materialise before responding.
She added that waiting for firms to raise prices and wage negotiations to conclude would mean acting too late.
Schnabel said that the surge in energy prices since mid-August points to a larger and more persistent overshoot of the ECB's 2% inflation target than assumed in its latest forecasts.

The Eurozone unemployment rate for September is scheduled for release today and is expected to have remained unchanged at 6.4%.
The data is expected to reflect the continued resilience of the region's labour market despite subdued economic growth.
A stable unemployment rate would reinforce the view that the Eurozone labour market remains a key source of economic support, helping to sustain household incomes and consumer spending.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he remains sceptical that the broader US economy is contracting, pointing to strong corporate profits across many sectors.
He also highlighted the low unemployment rate, limited layoffs and subdued jobless claims.
However, he acknowledged that the housing sector remains under pressure.
Kashkari said inflation is still too high but expressed hope that the Fed can bring price growth under control with modest policy adjustments.

The US ISM manufacturing PMI is due for release today and is expected to have increased to 55.0 in September, from 54.6 in August.

Locally, the BER manufacturing PMI for September is due for release today; the index fell to 45.8 in August, from 46.8 in July.
The deterioration was driven by a sharp weakening in business activity and new sales orders, with both sub-indices falling significantly during the month.
Survey respondents cited subdued domestic demand, weak consumer confidence, and restrained spending on non-essential goods as key factors weighing on activity.
The September Naamsa vehicle sales are also on the cards; vehicle sales increased by 11.4% y/y in August.
Electricity production and consumption for August are due out later today.

Brent crude oil is currently at $96.87/bbl; ($103.53/bbl*).
Gold is at $4184/oz ($4157/oz*).
SA CDS 133bps*, Brazil 129bps* and Turkey 246bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 5.28%*, German bund at 3.58%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.96%*, SA's R2035 at 8.77%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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