Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Corporate Commissioned Research
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
In the loop 22 September 2023

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.89/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R18.92/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday: the RUB (+0.5%) and IDR (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-1.9%), ZAR (-1.2%) and BRL (-1.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up. 
  • Japan’s CPI for August came in at 3.2% y/y, from 3.3% y/y in July.
  • Core CPI came in at 4.3% y/y in August, the same as in July. 
  • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged today, as expected.
  • The BOJ didn’t offer any clear sign of a shift in its policy stance but maintained a pledge to add to its stimulus without hesitation if needed.
  • The JPY weakened by as much as 0.4% after the decision.
  • US existing home sales fell by 0.7% m/m (to 4.04 million) in August, after having fallen by 2.2% m/m in July (from 4.07 million).
  • Borrowing costs are now near their highest levels in decades, discouraging existing homeowners from moving. 
  • High financing costs as well diminished inventory and elevated prices have “created one of the least affordable housing markets on record”. 
  • The US manufacturing, services and composite PMIs for September are scheduled for release today and are all expected to have improved.
  • Eurozone and UK flash PMI survey data releases for September are due out today. 
  • The data will likely provide further indications on how growth is developing amid tighter monetary conditions.
  • The Eurozone composite PMI survey will provide further insight into the downside risks to the economic outlook.
  • The composite PMI is likely to have slipped to 46.5 in September, from 46.7 in August.
  • The manufacturing PMI is likely to have improved in September, while the services PMI is expected to have slipped.
  • The UK composite PMI moved into recessionary territory in August, suggesting that the economy experienced a sharp loss of momentum over the summer.
  • A further deterioration, albeit slight, is expected in September.
  • Eskom: Stage 1 loadshedding is currently in place until 4pm; Stage 2 loadshedding will be implemented then.
  • Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 9.3% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 5.5% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $93.86/bbl; ($93.30/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1924/oz ($1919/oz*).
  • SA CDS 269bps*, Brazil 185bps* and Turkey 389bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.49%*, German bund at 2.73%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.81%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.54%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data: 

  • 08h00: UK retail sales (August)
  • 10h00: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing, services, and composite PMI (September)
  • 10h30: UK S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing, services, and composite PMI (September)
  • 15h45: US S&P Global manufacturing, services, and composite PMI (September)

Read PDF