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In the loop 26 October 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is steady this morning, at R16.58/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.58/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the BRL (+1.3%), RUB (+1.3%) and COP (+0.9%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-0.9%), PLN (-0.8%) and ZAR (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are down, while the Hang Seng is up.
 
  • Iran war: the weekend saw little substantive progress towards a settlement, with diplomacy continuing largely through indirect channels.
  • However, the threat of renewed US-Iran military escalation increased, leaving negotiations fragile and the regional security environment highly uncertain.
 
  • Central bank watch: the US FOMC is expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged on Wednesday.
  • The Bank of Canada is also expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday.
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to hike its official cash rate by 25 bps on Wednesday to remove stimulus in the face of inflation risks.
  • The Bank of Thailand is due to hold rates steady on Wednesday.
  • The ECB is likely to pause at its policy meeting on Thursday.
  • The Governing Council may hike for a final time in December to take policy rates slightly into restrictive territory.
  • The BOJ is likely to hold its policy rate at 1.25% on Friday, after a 25 bps hike in September.
 
  • China's September industrial profit growth, scheduled for release tomorrow, may have broken a four-month slowdown on firmer prices and output.
 
  • The German IFO business climate index for October is due out today; the index increased to 89.9 in September.
  • The Eurozone consumer sentiment index for October (final estimate) is due out on Thursday; sentiment is likely to have remained unchanged at -17.8 in October from the previous estimate, and from -16.8 in September.
  • Economic confidence is expected to have slipped to 97.5 in October, from 97.9 in September.
  • The preliminary Eurozone Q3:26 GDP is due out on Friday; GDP is expected to have risen by 0.2% q/q in Q3:26, after having increased by 0.6% q/q in Q2:26.
  • The unemployment rate for September is largely expected to remain unchanged, at 6.4%.
 
  • The US S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index for August is due for release tomorrow and is expected to show an improvement in house price growth.
  • The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for October will also be published tomorrow.
  • The consumer sentiment index is likely to have slipped to 81.0 in October, from 81.9 in September.
  • The advance goods trade balance for September is due out on Wednesday; the trade deficit is expected to have narrowed to $130.2bn, from a deficit of $132.1bn in August.
  • The US Fed's preferred inflation gauge for September, the core PCE deflator, due on Thursday, is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m, after having increased by 0.2% m/m in August.
  • Thursday will also see the release of the first estimate of Q3:26 GDP, with real growth likely around 3.2% q/q, up from 2.2% q/q in Q2:26.
  • The increase is expected to have been boosted by strong AI-related investment and resilient consumer spending.
 
  • Locally, the leading indicator for August is on the cards tomorrow; the index slipped to 118.2 in July, from 119.3 in June.
  • The M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for September are scheduled for release on Thursday.
  • PSCE is expected to have increased by 7.31% y/y in September, following a 7.47% y/y increase in August.
  • The September PPI is also due out on Thursday and is expected at 5.6% y/y, after having increased by 5.0% y/y in August.
  • On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have increased by 0.6% in September, following a 0.4% decline in August.
  • The September trade balance is due for release on Friday; the trade surplus is expected at R17.4bn in September, from a surplus of R20.5bn in August. 
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 88.3% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 7.1% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $114.55/bbl; ($116.72/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4014/oz ($3996/oz*).
  • SA CDS 135bps*, Brazil 121bps* and Turkey 263bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.99%*, German bund at 3.34%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.81%*, SA's R2035 at 8.61%*.
 

* Denotes Friday's close. 

Key events and data:

  • 11h00: Germany IFO business climate (October)
 

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