In the loop 28 July 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.82/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.73/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+0.9%), INR (+0.7%) and COP (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-0.7%), KRW (-0.6%) and IDR (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: both Iran and the US are maintaining a pause in direct attacks after nearly two weeks of intense escalation earlier this month.
Iranian officials have said retaliatory operations have been halted, while US officials indicated that President Trump was giving diplomacy “some space,” although US forces remained on the alert and warned that military action could resume if negotiations failed.
Iranian officials reported progress in discussions on the management of the Strait of Hormuz, while US and regional officials suggested that indirect talks were gaining momentum.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) shop price index showed that UK shop price inflation eased to 0.9% y/y in July, down from 1.2% y/y in June.
This was the slowest pace of annual shop price inflation since December 2025.
The moderation reflected intense retail competition and widespread discounting, particularly around the football World Cup, which lowered prices for food, clothing, footwear, alcohol and snacks.
The data suggests that retailers continue to absorb part of the increase in operating costs to support consumer demand amid a still-challenging spending environment.
While lower shop price inflation should support households, the BRC warned that higher labour costs and geopolitical risks to supply chains and energy prices could slow further disinflation.

President Trump yesterday reiterated his call for significantly lower US interest rates.
He argued that the Fed should reduce borrowing costs and that the US ought to have the lowest interest rates in the world.
While expressing confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, Trump acknowledged that Warsh must work with the rest of the Fed Board, suggesting that policy decisions are determined collectively rather than by the chair alone.
Trump also criticised Fed Board members as being “political”, implying that political considerations were influencing monetary policy.
He renewed his view that current interest rates are unnecessarily high and should be lowered to better support economic growth and strengthen the US economy.
The Fed is due to announce its interest rate decision tomorrow and is largely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged.

The US FHFA housing market index is due out today; the price index is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in May, following a 0.1% m/m decline in April.
The US S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index for May is due for release today and is expected to show a lift in house price growth.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for July will also be published today.
The consumer sentiment index is likely to have increased to 92.0 in July, from 91.2 in June.

Locally, the SARB leading indicator for May is due for release today; the leading indicator slipped to 118.0 in April, from 121.1 in March.

Oil prices fell yesterday after the US and Iran paused weeks of tit-for-tat strikes over the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes that tensions in the region may be easing.
However, despite the lull in hostilities, disruptions to shipping through the vital waterway continued.
President Trump said there's a “good chance” of a deal with Tehran.
Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 43.3% year-to-date.
The gold price is down this morning, and down by 6.4% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $87.19/bbl; ($88.36/bbl*).
Gold is at $4042/oz ($4076/oz*).
SA CDS 130bps*, Brazil 123bps* and Turkey 240bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.64%*, German bund at 3.13%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.75%*, SA's R2035 at 8.57%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF