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In the loop 28 April 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.56/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.54/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.5%), MYR (+0.3%) and THB (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-2.3%), ARS (-1.3%) and PEN (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Iran war: Iran has presented a revised proposal, via regional intermediaries, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalate the conflict in exchange for an end to the US naval blockade.
  • Iran deferred nuclear negotiations to a later stage.
  • President Donald Trump has signalled dissatisfaction, insisting that any deal must directly address Iran's nuclear programme.
 
  • Central bank watch: the BOJ today kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged.
  • The US Fed is set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to leave the Fed funds rate on hold. 
  • Policymakers will be particularly alert to any signs that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored.
  • The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its overnight rate target steady, at 2.25%, when its Governing Council meets on Wednesday.
  • The Bank of Thailand is likely to maintain its benchmark rate at 1.00%.
  • The ECB will meet on Thursday and is expected to remain in a wait-and-see mode amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of the Iran conflict. 
  • President Christine Lagarde is likely to emphasise that all policy options remain on the table.
  • She is likely to reiterate that a prolonged period of elevated commodity prices might necessitate some degree of monetary tightening.
  • The BOE will also announce its decision on Thursday and is expected to hold rates at 3.75%; the central bank is set to release updated forecasts.
 
  • Japan's industrial output for March, due on Thursday, is expected to have strengthened, supported by firm demand linked to AI-related investment.
  • In China, April PMI readings, also scheduled for Thursday, are likely to indicate a modest easing in overall activity, although the manufacturing sector should remain in expansion. 
  • Export demand appears relatively resilient, while domestic conditions continue to show signs of softness.
 
  • The ECB's quarterly Bank Lending Survey, due later today, is expected to indicate that the Iran war has weighed on both the supply of and demand for credit, as lenders tighten standards. 
  • Elevated borrowing costs have likely also dampened new loan demand.
  • The preliminary Eurozone Q1:26 GDP and April inflation data are due for release on Thursday. 
  • GDP is expected to have risen by 0.2% q/q, matching the pace recorded in Q4:25, and is unlikely to influence this month's monetary policy decision.
  • CPI is likely to have increased to 3.0% y/y in April, from 2.6% y/y in March.
 
  • The US S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index for February is due for release today and is expected to show a moderation in house price growth.
  • The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for April will also be published today.
  • The consumer sentiment index is likely to have declined to 89.0 in April, from 91.8 in March. 
  • Higher gasoline prices are likely to have put near-term pressure on household budgets and weighed on sentiment.
  • The Fed's preferred inflation gauge for March, the core PCE deflator, due on Thursday, is expected to show some moderation.
  • Thursday will also see the release of the advance estimate of Q1:26 GDP, with growth likely rebounding to around 2.0% q/q, up from 0.5% q/q in Q4:25.
  • The ISM manufacturing PMI for April, due on Friday, is expected to edge up to 53.1, from 52.7 in March.
 
  • Locally, the SARB's leading indicator for February is due out this morning.
  • The M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for March are scheduled for release on Thursday.
  • PSCE is expected to have increased by 9.6% y/y in March, down from 10.5% y/y in February. 
  • The March PPI is on the cards on Thursday and is expected at 2.0% y/y, after having increased by 1.8% y/y in February.
  • The monthly Budget balance data for March is also due for release on Thursday; a budget deficit of R10.0bn is expected, from a surplus of R27.3bn in February.
  • The March trade balance is due for release on Thursday; the trade surplus is expected to have compressed to R29.0bn in March, from a surplus of R36.9bn in March. 
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 80.0% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 7.5% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $109.48/bbl; ($108.23/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4644/oz ($4682/oz*).
  • SA CDS 154bps**, Brazil 123bps* and Turkey 239bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.34%*, German bund at 3.00%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.77%**, SA's R2035 at 8.61%**.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close.

** Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: Japan machine tool orders (March – final)
  • 09h00: SA SARB leading indicator (February)
  • 10h00: Eurozone ECB 1 yr and 3 yr inflation expectations (March)
  • 15h00: US FHFA house price index (February), S&P Cotality Case-Shiller house price index (February)
  • 16h00: US Conference Board consumer confidence index (April)
 

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