In the loop 18 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.62/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.64/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+1.2%), PLN (+0.7%) and BRL (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.4%) and HKD (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: Day 18 of the war saw the energy market remaining volatile, with the disruptions to supply and transport routes keeping oil prices elevated.
This has reinforced fears of renewed global inflation.
Policymakers and central banks are facing increased uncertainty as they make decisions regarding the future path of interest rates.
Several central banks around the world are due to meet this week to decide on rates.
Expectations for interest rate cuts are now being pushed further out amid the risk of sustained price pressures.

Central bank watch: the US Fed is scheduled to meet today and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
Labour market data since the last FOMC meeting implies increased upside risk to the unemployment rate, while the Iran war has added further upward pressure on inflation.
Markets will be keeping an eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference after the meeting.
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its overnight rate target at 2.25% when its Governing Council meets today.

The Eurozone's final inflation report for February, due today, will provide more detailed insight into the factors behind the recent acceleration in headline, core and services inflation.
The final estimate of the CPI print for February is expected at 1.9% y/y, unchanged from the previous estimate, and from 1.7% y/y in January.
On a m/m basis, CPI is likely to have increased by 0.7% in February, after having declined by 0.6% in January.
Core CPI is expected at 2.4% y/y in February, from 2.2% y/y in January.
The ECB is also expected to keep rates unchanged this week.

Locally, the February CPI is due today and is expected at 3.1% y/y, from 3.5% y/y in January.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.5%, after having increased by 0.2% in January.
Core CPI is projected at 3.2% y/y in February, from 3.4% y/y in January.
January's retail sales are also due today and are expected to reflect growth of 2.9% y/y, up from a 2.6% y/y increase in December.

The oil price is down this morning as Iraqi and Kurdish authorities agree on a deal to resume exports via Turkey.
Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 66.2% year-to-date.
The gold price is down this morning, and up by 15.5% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $101.09/bbl; ($103.42/bbl*).
Gold is at $4989/oz ($5005/oz*).
SA CDS 167bps*, Brazil 134bps* and Turkey 274bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.19%*, German bund at 2.90%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.92%*, SA's R2035 at 8.80%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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