Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Equities Enablement Lab
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
In the loop 20 October 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.40/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.43/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.9%), BRL (+0.6%) and COP (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-0.4%), TWD (-0.4%) and RON (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Iran war: Iran has confirmed that it has received Washington's response to Tehran's proposal to reopen the waterway within seven days, although differences persisted over the sequencing of concessions.
  • President Trump rejected Iran's proposal in its current form, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian indicated that the reopening process could begin once Washington accepted Tehran's plan.
  • The US naval blockade and sanctions therefore remained in place.
 
  • The UK S&P Global consumer sentiment index fell to 41.3 in October, from 42.7 in September, marking its third consecutive monthly decline and its lowest level since July 2023. 
  • The deterioration reflected mounting concerns over inflation, rising borrowing costs, and weakening household finances.
  • The household finance index fell to a 40-month low of 36.7 in October. 
  • Expectations for household finances over the next 12 months weakened sharply in October; 57% of respondents anticipated further interest rate increases by the BOE.
  • Consumers remained cautious about major purchases, while the savings index declined to 39.6 in October, from 40.4 in September. 
  • Labour market sentiment remained subdued for a fifth consecutive month, reflecting persistent concerns about employment prospects and job security. 
 
  • The UK labour data, due out today, will likely show that pay gains in the private sector rose to 3% in the three months to August, from 2.9% previously.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to have increased in August, to 5.0%, from 4.9% in July.
  • Germany's ZEW survey expectations for October are due out tomorrow; the index is expected to have slipped to 30.0, from 34.7 in September.
 
  • ECB Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpen yesterday warned that the window to limit global warming to the 1.5°C target set under the Paris Agreement is rapidly closing.
  • Sleijpen noted that scientific evidence suggests the remaining carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C target is almost exhausted, making a significant overshoot increasingly likely within the next decade. 
  • He cautioned that the economic consequences of climate change and environmental degradation are becoming increasingly evident, particularly through more frequent extreme weather events.
  • This could threaten economic stability and financial resilience. 
  • Sleijpen stressed that, while some consequences of global warming are already irreversible, decisive action could still prevent the most severe outcomes.
 
  • US housing starts for September, due out today, likely increased by 1.9% m/m, after August's 2.6% m/m decrease.
  • Building permits are expected to have fallen by 1.3% m/m in September, following a 2.1% m/m decline in August.
 
  • Locally, SA business confidence remained relatively stable in September, supported by elevated precious metal prices, stronger tourism activity, and increased vehicle sales.
  • The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry's (SACCI) business confidence index edged down to 134.3 in September, from 135.1 in August. 
  • SACCI cautioned that elevated fuel prices and rising borrowing costs could undermine the recent improvement in confidence.
 
  • It's a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 80.7% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 4.3% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $110.0/bbl; ($109.55/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4132/oz ($4140/oz*).
  • SA CDS 130bps*, Brazil 119bps* and Turkey 251bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 5.13%*, German bund at 3.45%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.91%*, SA's R2035 at 8.71%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close. 

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: UK ILO unemployment rate (August), weekly earnings (August), jobless claims (September)
  • 10h00: Eurozone current account (August)
  • 11h00: Eurozone ZEW survey expectations (October)
  • 14h15: US ADP employment (3 October)
  • 14h30: US housing starts (September), building permits (September)
 

Read PDF