In the loop 25 July 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.64/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.65/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the PHP (+0.4%), PEN (+0.3%) and BGN (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-1.2%), RUB (-1.0%) and COP (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

The UK GfK consumer confidence index deteriorated to -19 in July, from -18 in June.
UK retail sales are likely to have increased by 1.2% m/m in June, after having decreased by 2.7% m/m in May.
On a y/y basis, sales are likely to have increased by 1.8% in June, from a 1.3% decline in May.
Sales have likely been supported by an improvement in consumer sentiment in June.
Uncertainty about the global economy and renewed talks about further tax increases this year will likely keep a lid on consumption growth.

Following the decision to hold interest rates steady yesterday, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the bank is in a “wait-and-see” mode amid the US trade uncertainty.
Lagarde noted the lacking clarity on the eventual level of tariffs and thus did not offer guidance on the likely path of interest rates.
Lagarde, however, remarked that the economy is growing mostly in line with, or a little better than, expectations.
She highlighted that risks remain tilted to the downside due to elevated uncertainty.
Other challenges include a strong euro and an increase in public spending on infrastructure and defence.
Lagarde added that “if trade and geopolitical tensions were resolved swiftly, this could lift sentiment and spur activity”.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell came under further attack yesterday as President Trump pressures the Fed to cut rates next week.
Trump has criticized the Fed’s timing of interest rate cut.
And has personally attacked Powell, questioning spending on the renovation of the Fed headquarters.
Trump ramped up the pressure even further yesterday when he visited the Fed headquarters to see the renovations himself.
Trump noted that it is not necessary to fire Powell, but “interest rates have to come down”.
The FOMC will meet next week to decide on rates.

US durable goods orders for June are scheduled for release today; durable goods orders are expected to have declined.
Such a decline would likely be on the back of a fall in aircraft orders in June.

Brent crude oil is currently at $69.45/bbl; ($69.18/bbl*).
Gold is at $3358/oz ($3368/oz*).
SA CDS 184bps*, Brazil 146bps* and Turkey 277bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.38%*, German bund at 2.70%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.89%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.81%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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