In the loop 30 October 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R16.61/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.62/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+0.7%), PLN (+0.6%) and RON (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the MXN (-0.9%), RUB (-0.8%) and BRL (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai composite are down, while the Hang Seng is up.

Iran war: regional tensions remained elevated, with Houthi missile attacks towards Riyadh and incidents involving tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
This underscores the risk that continued fighting might further undermine the diplomatic push.

Central bank watch: the BOJ kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged today, at 1.25%, as expected.
It signalled for the first time that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, paving the way for a potential rate hike as early as December.
This marks a significant shift in the BOJ's policy focus, from efforts to stimulate inflation towards ensuring that price pressures remain sustainably anchored around the target.
The central bank emphasised the importance of maintaining inflation near 2%.
However, the BOJ warned of the growing risk that underlying inflation might overshoot its target.

Japan's retail sales growth slowed more than expected in September, pointing to continued weakness in household consumption amid persistent inflationary pressures.
Retail sales increased by 2.3% y/y, below expectations of a 3.3% y/y increase, and from an upwardly revised 2.9% y/y increase in August.
This marked the seventh consecutive month of y/y growth, although the pace was the weakest in three months.
While government measures to alleviate cost-of-living pressures have provided some support to consumption, elevated prices continue to constrain household purchasing power.

The UK Nationwide house price index is expected to have increased by 0.6% y/y in October, down from 0.8% y/y in September.
It is expected to have decreased by 0.2% m/m in October, matching September's decrease.
The UK Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey for October is scheduled for release today.
The 1-year ahead inflation expectations are likely to have increased to 3.5% in October, from 3.3% in September.
The 3-month inflation expectations remained unchanged in September, at 3.1%.
Policymakers at the BOE will watch the survey closely for signals on inflation persistence risks.

The preliminary Eurozone Q3:26 GDP is due out today; GDP is expected to have risen by 0.2% q/q in Q3:26, after having increased by 0.6% q/q in Q2:26.
The unemployment rate for September is largely expected to remain unchanged, at 6.4%.

Locally, the September trade balance is due for release today; the trade surplus is expected at R16.4bn in September, from a surplus of R20.5bn in August.
The monthly budget balance for September is also due out.

Oil prices rose this morning as the prospect of renewed US military action against Iran dampened hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough and reignited concerns over potential supply disruptions.
US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper briefed President Trump on military options for Iran yesterday.
Discussions included the ongoing US blockade and the possibility of resuming major combat operations.
Trump has indicated that further strikes might follow the US midterm elections on 3 November, heightening geopolitical uncertainty and adding upward pressure on oil prices.

Brent crude oil is currently at $116.12/bbl; ($114.88/bbl*).
Gold is at $3992/oz ($4021/oz*).
SA CDS 122bps*, Brazil 134bps* and Turkey 251bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.93%*, German bund at 3.35%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.72%*, SA's R2035 at 8.53%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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