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In the loop 10 March 2023

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.55/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.45/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+1.0%), ZAR (+0.7%) and RUB (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the MXN (-0.6%), BRL (-0.5%) and ARS (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down. 
  • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has kept its negative interest rate and yield curve control program steady, as expected.
  • The BOJ signalled abiding concerns over the economy by downwardly revising its view on exports and production. 
  • The bank however kept its overall economic assessment unchanged.
  • Shortly before the MPC decision was made, Japan's parliament formally endorsed Kazuo Ueda to succeed Haruhiko Kuroda as governor from 9 April.
  • This was Governor Kuroda’s final meeting after a decade of massive stimulus.
  • In the UK, the monthly GDP data for January will be watched closely today.
  • The UK economy is expected to have posted a small monthly gain at the start of the year, following a sharp contraction in December 2022.
  • GDP is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m, after having contracted by 0.5% m/m in December.
  • The US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for February is in the spotlight today.
  • Non-farm payrolls are expected to have increased by 225k, following a massive increase of 517k in January.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged, at 3.4% in February.
  • The Fed will be keeping a close eye on inflation and labour data in the lead-up the FOMC meeting scheduled for 21-22 March.
  • Another robust NFP outcome, together with the massive increase in payrolls in January, could see the Fed needing to revert to larger interest rate rises to tame inflation.
  • Locally, it’s a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
  • Eskom: Stage 4 loadshedding is currently in place until further notice.
  • Brent crude oil is down this morning, and down by 5.6% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 0.3% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $81.11/bbl; ($81.59/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1828/oz ($1829/oz*).
  • SA CDS 250bps*, Brazil 217bps* and Turkey 516bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 3.90%*, German bund at 2.64%* and SA 10-year generic at 10.90%*, SA’s R186 at 8.59%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

 Key events and data: 

  • 09h00: UK GDP (January), industrial production (January), manufacturing production (January), visible trade balance (January)
  • 15h30: US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate (February)

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