In the loop 03 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.11/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.08/$*).
EM currencies were largely down yesterday; the HUF (-1.8%), PLN (-1.3%) and THB (-1.2%) were the biggest losers; the ARS was up by 0.3%.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

The Eurozone CPI for February is the key release in the region today.
Inflation is already running well below the ECB's 2% target; CPI is expected at 1.7% y/y in February, unchanged from January.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.5% in February, after having declined by 0.6% m/m in January.
Core CPI is expected to have remained unchanged, at 2.2% y/y, in February.
While the ECB had indicated that rates are likely to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, any further downside surprise in inflation would increase pressure on the Governing Council to reassess its policy stance.

President Donald Trump said yesterday that the US would maintain its military offensive against Iran for as long as necessary.
He outlined four key objectives aimed at reducing the threat posed by Tehran.
These are 1) eliminating Iran's missile capabilities, 2) destroying its navy, 3) blocking its path to acquiring a nuclear weapon, and 4) preventing the government from arming, funding, or directing militant groups beyond its borders.
Trump stressed that he is prepared to see the operation through to its conclusion.
While he did not rule out deploying ground troops, he suggested such a step may not be required.

The US ISM manufacturing activity remained in expansion in February.
The index edged down slightly, to 52.4, from 52.6 in January.
However, cost pressures intensified markedly.
The prices-paid component surged to 70.5, its highest level since inflation peaked nearly four years ago, marking the fastest pace of input price growth since 2022.
The escalating conflict in the Middle East poses a risk to the sector's recovery, particularly through higher energy prices, which adds to manufacturers' cost burdens.
Yesterday's survey data were collected before US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran over the weekend, suggesting that further price pressures may emerge in the coming months.

Locally, it's a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
President Cyril Ramaphosa yesterday highlighted in his weekly newsletter the significance of Budget 2026 as a milestone in SA's economic recovery.
He emphasised that the country has reached a turning point in the management of public finances.
Ramaphosa highlighted that years of disciplined fiscal consolidation, structural reform and improved governance have begun to yield tangible results, including the stabilisation of public debt, a narrowing budget deficit, and declining debt-service costs.
The President underscored that these improvements have strengthened SA's credibility with investors and ratings agencies.
He pointed to renewed confidence reflected in lower borrowing costs and improved market sentiment.
Ramaphosa stressed, however, that sustained and inclusive economic growth remains essential to meaningfully reduce debt and address unemployment, inequality, and poverty.

Brent crude oil is currently at $79.75/bbl; ($77.74/bbl*).
Gold is at $5344/oz ($5322/oz*).
SA CDS 144bbps*, Brazil 130bps* and Turkey 241bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.03%*, German bund at 2.71%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.25%*, SA's R2035 at 8.11%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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