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In the loop 17 January 2023

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is unchanged this morning, at R17.04/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.04/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the IDR (+0.7%), PHP (+0.6%) and KRW (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-1.3%), BRL (-1.0%) and HUF (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
  • The World Economic Forum's (WEF) annual meeting has begun with business leaders and economists warning of a global recession this year
  • A PricewaterhouseCoopers survey highlighted that 73% of 4,410 business leaders polled expect global growth to decline over the coming year.
  • This is the worst outcome since the survey began in 2011. 
  • In addition, 2 out of 5 expressed concern that their companies may not see through a decade. 
  • Another survey polling views of chief economists noted that two-thirds expect a global recession.
  • China’s economy in 2022 grew at the second-slowest pace since the 1970s.
  • China kept to its “Covid Zero” policy for most of 2022, which dampened output across the nation.
  • GDP growth came in at 3% in 2022, against expectations of 2.7%.
  • This economy expanded by 2.9% y/y in Q4:22, from 3.9% y/y in. Q3:22.
  • Despite the slowdown, the data was better than forecast in Q4:22.
  • This, together with the December economic data, adds to optimism that China’s economy is on the way to recovery.
  • Policymakers have indicated prioritising economic growth in 2023; we could see more fiscal and monetary stimulus on the cards.
  • The ECB’s Pablo Hernandez de Cos commented yesterday that big interest rate increases would continue as officials look to further bring down inflation in the bloc.
  • Rates are expected to rise to a level allowing the bank to ensure inflation returns to target.
  • De Cos noted that “future interest-rate decisions will continue to be data driven and will follow a meeting-by-meeting approach”.
  • Several central bank policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic have indicated that interest rates would probably stay higher for longer than markets expected.
  • The US Empire manufacturing survey for January is due out today.
  • Manufacturers are likely to see activity still in contraction as weaker demand for goods, higher costs and rising interest rates take a toll.
  • Locally, the mining production data for November is scheduled for release today and is likely to reflect a further contraction.
  • Mining production is expected to have declined by 3.2% m/m and 6.5% y/y in November, after having fallen by 2.5% m/m and 10.4% y/y in October.
  • Eskom: Stage 4 loadshedding is currently in place until 4pm; Stage 5 loadshedding will resume then until 5am on Wednesday. 
  • Eskom noted that 14 generators are expected to return to service this week, which would ease the pressure on the power system.
  • Brent crude oil is up this morning, and down by 1.4% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 4.8% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $84.69/bbl; ($84.46/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1910/oz ($1913/oz*).
  • SA CDS 250bps*, Brazil 239bps* and Turkey 564bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 3.50%*, German bund at 2.17%* and SA 10-year generic at 10.53%*, SA’s R186 at 8.25%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close. 

 Key events and data: 

  • 09h00: UK jobless claims change (December)
  • 09h00: UK average weekly earnings, ILO unemployment rate (November)
  • 11h30: SA mining production (November)
  • 12h00: Eurozone ZEW survey expectations (January)
  • 15h30: US Empire manufacturing survey (January)

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