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In the loop 09 April 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.41/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.37/$*).
  • EM currencies were mostly stronger yesterday; the ZAR (+3.2%), HUF (+2.5%) and CLP (+2.1%) gained the most.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Iran war: Israel's continued bombing of Lebanon has seen the US-Iran ceasefire come under strain.
  • Iran halted the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to withdraw from talks, and the deal altogether, if Israel's attacks continued.
  • Gulf states too continued to face sporadic attacks; Saudi Arabia's East-West crude pipeline was struck.
  • US Vice President JD Vance will lead the US delegation to Islamabad for this weekend's talks.
  • Vance noted that “we're on the right track” in negotiations, and added that Israel had agreed to “check themselves a little bit in Lebanon”.
 
  • Minutes from the March FOMC meeting reveal growing concern that the conflict in the Middle East could fuel inflation, prompting consideration of interest rate hikes.
  • While the benchmark rate remained unchanged and projections released after the meeting still pointed to one rate cut expected in 2026, the minutes highlighted various scenarios.
  • Most policymakers flagged the threat of a prolonged war damaging the US labour market, potentially requiring lower rates.
  • The number of officials supporting explicit mention of possible rate hikes has risen since January, and the “vast majority” expects a longer path back to the 2% inflation target.
  • Some policymakers highlighted that “longer-term inflation expectations could become more sensitive to energy price increases” given that inflation has been running above target for five years.
 
  • A slew of US data, including the US Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, is due for release today.
  • Monthly core PCE inflation was likely up 0.4% in m/m in February, matching January's increase.
  • Personal income is likely to have increased by 0.3% m/m in February, after having increased by 0.4% m/m in January.
  • Personal spending is expected to have increased by 0.6% m/m in February, up from 0.4% m/m in January.
  • The final estimate of Q4:25 US GDP is also scheduled for release.
  • GDP is expected at 0.7% q/q (annualised) in Q4:25, from 4.4% q/q in Q3:25.
 
  • Japan's consumer confidence index slumped in March.
  • The index declined to its lowest level in almost a year, reaching 33.3 in March, down from an almost seven-year high of 39.7 (revised down from 40.0) in February.
  • Inflation has been above the BOJ's target of 2% for four years.
  • Fiscal measures, to soften the blow from rising prices, were introduced at the start of this year, and then broadened due to the ongoing Iran war.
 
  • The UK Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance dipped more than expected in March.
  • The RICS house price balance fell to -23%, from a downwardly revised -14% in February.
  • The prices indicator was at its lowest level since January 2024; all sales indicators deteriorated in March.
 
  • Locally, gross and net reserves for March will be released by the SARB this morning.
  • Gross reserves increased to $81.1bn at the end of February on the back of the higher US dollar gold price, asset price movements, and foreign exchange purchases.
  • Net reserves stood at $75.8bn at the end of February.
  • SA manufacturing production data for February is also due today.
  • Manufacturing production declined by 0.7% y/y in January, after having decreased by 1.5% y/y in December.
  • On a m/m basis, production increased by 1.5% in January, following a decline of 1.3% in December.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 59.4% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 9.3% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $97.00/bbl; ($94.75/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4722/oz ($4761/oz*).
  • SA CDS 156bps*, Brazil 126bps* and Turkey 245bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.29%*, German bund at 2.94%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.68%*, SA's R2035 at 8.48%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: SA gross, net reserves (March)
  • 08h00: Japan machine tool orders (March)
  • 13h00: SA manufacturing production (February)
  • 14h30: US GDP (Q4:24 – final), personal income and spending, core PCE deflator (February), initial jobless claims (4 April)
 

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