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In the loop 31 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.12/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.14/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.3%), THB (+0.1%) and MXN (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-1.1%), ARS (-0.9%) and PLN (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Iran war: President Trump said yesterday that he would be prepared to end the US military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed.
  • He indicated that Washington's immediate objectives, significantly degrading Iran's naval capabilities and missile stockpiles, have largely been achieved.
  • This allows the US to begin winding down hostilities while shifting the focus towards diplomatic pressure to restore the free flow of trade.
 
  • China's official manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory for the first time this year in March, rising to 50.4, from 49.0 in February.
  • The non-manufacturing PMI also improved, increasing to 50.1 in March, from 49.5 in February, despite escalating tensions in the Middle East.
  • However, despite this uptick in activity, China's manufacturing sector remains vulnerable to external shocks, particularly if the Iran war should lead to a broader slowdown in global growth.
 
  • The Eurozone CPI for March is the key release in the region today; higher fuel prices are expected to push up headline inflation.
  • The impact of higher natural gas costs on household utility bills is likely to emerge more gradually, as multi-month contracts limit the immediate pass-through.
  • Headline CPI is expected at 2.5% y/y in March, after having increased by 1.9% y/y in February.
  • On a m/m basis, CPI is likely to have increased by 1.3% in March, after having increased by 0.6% m/m in February.
  • Core CPI is likely to have remained unchanged, at 2.4% y/y, in March.
  • The UK Nationwide house price data for March is due for release today; prices are expected to have flatlined in March, following a 0.3% m/m increase in February.
 
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented yesterday that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored as the Fed evaluates the economic impact of the Iran war. 
  • He noted that policymakers may need to respond to any material effects from the conflict.
  • However, he stressed that such action is not warranted at this stage. 
  • For now, the Fed's policy stance is well positioned to allow time to assess incoming data.
  • Powell also highlighted that the Fed is monitoring developments in the private credit market very carefully.
  • While a correction is underway, Powell emphasised that there are currently no signs of spillovers to the banking system or risks of broader financial contagion.
 
  • The US S&P Cotality Case-Shiller price index for January is due today; home prices in January likely mostly maintained December's growth pace.
  • The Conference Board consumer confidence index for March is also scheduled for release and is expected to have declined to 87.9, from 91.2 in February.
  • Higher gas prices are adding near-term pressure on household budgets, constraining discretionary spending. 
  • The JOLTS job openings for February are on the cards and are likely to reflect a decline in job openings.
  • Job openings are expected at 6890k in February, down from 6946k in January.
  • The data comes ahead of the non-farm payrolls (NFP) for March later this week; payrolls are expected to have increased by 60k, after having declined by 92k in February.
 
  • Locally, the SARB will release the March Quarterly Bulletin today.
  • Stats SA's non-farm payrolls for Q4:25 are due out tomorrow; non-farm payrolls increased by 0.3% q/q in Q3:25.
  • The February trade balance will also be in focus; the trade surplus is expected to have widened to R20.0bn in February, from a surplus of R9.3bn in January. 
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 88.3% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 5.6% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $113.56/bbl; ($112.78/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4563/oz ($4510/oz*).
  • SA CDS 203bps*, Brazil 143bps* and Turkey 312bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.34%*, German bund at 3.03%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.38%*, SA's R2035 at 9.23%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: UK GDP (Q4:25 – final), current account balance (Q4:25), Nationwide house price index (March)
  • 09h00: SA SARB Quarterly Bulletin (March)
  • 11h00: Eurozone CPI (March)
  • 11h30: SA non-farm payrolls (Q4:25)
  • 14h00: SA trade balance (February)
  • 15h00: US FHFA house price index (January), S&P Cotality house price index (January)
  • 16h00: US Conference Board consumer confidence index (March), JOLTS job openings (February)
 

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