In the loop 16 September 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is slightly stronger this morning, at R16.22/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.24/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.3%), PEN (+0.3%) and CLP (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-1.3%), TWD (-0.5%) and INR (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: key international discussions continued to focus on restoring security in the Gulf and reducing risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil flows from the region remain constrained, while uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations continues to weigh on global energy markets.

Central bank watch: the Fed is the focal point for markets today, with investors debating whether policymakers will deliver a 25 bps rate hike after stronger-than-expected inflation data and a sharp rise in oil.
Market pricing has shifted notably in favour of further tightening.
Investors are likely to keep an eye on comments by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Eurozone industrial production, scheduled for release today, is expected to have decreased by 0.1% y/y in July, after having increased by 0.1% y/y in June.
UK CPI for August, also due out today, is expected to have increased to 3.1% y/y, from a 2.9% y/y increase July.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.5% in August, after having increased by 0.3% in July.
The increase is expected to have been driven by a rise in fuel costs.
Core CPI is expected to come in unchanged in August, at 2.6% y/y.

The US NAHB housing market index for September is scheduled for release today; the index is expected to have slipped marginally, to 34, from 35 in August.
US retail sales, due later today, likely increased by 0.8% m/m in August, from a 0.6% m/m decrease (the sharpest decline in more than a year) in July.
The data will be closely watched for signs of whether US consumer spending regained momentum after the surprisingly weak July outcome.
The focus will be on whether stronger vehicle sales and continued consumer demand were sufficient to offset the drag from higher fuel prices and ongoing cost-of-living pressures.

Locally, retail sales for July are due out today and are expected to reflect growth of 1.0% y/y, down from a 1.6% y/y increase in June.
On a m/m basis, retail sales are expected to have increased by 0.6% in July, after having fallen by 0.6% in June.
The data will provide an important gauge of household spending at the start of the third quarter.
A stronger-than-expected outcome would suggest that households are proving more resilient than anticipated.

The BER will release the Q3:26 inflation expectations today.
The data will be scrutinised to assess whether the mid-year surge in inflation expectations has persisted.
In the Q2:26 survey, conducted during the Iran conflict-driven energy shock, one-year inflation expectations among analysts, businesses and trade unions surged to 4.4% from 3.6%, while longer-term expectations also increased.
Household inflation expectations rose even more noticeably, reflecting concerns about fuel costs and broader price pressures.

Brent crude oil is currently at $108.04/bbl; ($108.75/bbl*).
Gold is at $4326/oz ($4292/oz*).
SA CDS 120bps*, Brazil 112bps* and Turkey 220bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 5.00%*, German bund at 3.53%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.00%*, SA's R2035 at 8.79%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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