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In the loop 09 July 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.12/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.10/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+1.0%), MXN (+0.5%) and ZAR (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-0.6%), CLP (-0.3%) and CZK (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
  • The US NFIB small business optimism index, due out today, may have deteriorated slightly in June, after increasing for three consecutive months.
  • The index is likely to have slipped to 90.2 in June, from 90.5 in May.
  • Investors will keep an eye on the jobs sub-index.
  • An exceptionally high number of small business owners have at least one job opening that they are not able to fill.
  • This has forced some business owners to increase compensation but at the expense of profit margins.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell will provide his semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee today.
  • The (Republican) committee is likely to question Powell on the economic consequences of inflation over the past four years.
  • The (Democratic) committee will likely urge Powell to commence the interest rate cutting cycle ahead of a further increase in unemployment.
  • Powell is due to deliver the testimony to the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow.
  • Several ECB policymakers are due to speak on the economy later today.
  • Investors will watch out for clues on whether the ECB is likely to cut rates further on 31 July.
  • Locally, it’s a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 11.0% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 14.7% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $85.54/bbl; ($85.75/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2365/oz ($2358/oz*).
  • SA CDS 200bps*, Brazil 153bps* and Turkey 258bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.27%, German bund at 2.54%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.1 %*, SA’s R2030 at 9.73%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: Japan machine tool orders (June)
  • 12h00: US NFIB small business optimism (June)

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