In the loop 05 October 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.72/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.65/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the COP (+1.5), MXN (+1.3%) and KRW (+0.9%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.9%), CLP (-0.4%) and TRY (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Heng Seng is down.

Iran war: diplomatic efforts to prevent a renewed direct US-Iran confrontation continued to make only limited progress.
Iran reiterated that there was “no military solution” to the war and maintained that any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remained conditional on US acceptance of Tehran's proposals.
Indirect mediation efforts involving Qatar continued amid disagreements.

Central bank watch: investors are expected to keep an eye on the minutes of the 15-16 September US FOMC meeting, which saw the committee unanimously voting to hike the Fed funds rate by 25 bps.
The minutes are likely to show broad support for further tightening as policymakers chase swifter progress on inflation.
The minutes of the ECB's 9-10 September meeting are in focus on Thursday.
Investors will keep an eye on clues regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike.
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday.

The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for October, due today, is expected to have slipped to 4.5, from 5.1 in September.
The region's PPI for August is also due out today; PPI is likely to come in at 7.9% y/y, from 5.8% y/y in July.
The Eurozone retail sales for August are scheduled for release tomorrow and are expected to have increased by 1.0% y/y, following a 0.6% y/y increase in July.

The US ISM services PMI for September is due out today and is likely to have slipped to 55.0, from 55.4 in August.
The trade balance is due out tomorrow; the deficit is likely to have widened in August, to -$102bn, from -$88.6bn in July.
Exports likely increased less than imports in August.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for October is scheduled for release on Friday; sentiment likely slipped to 47.7 in October, from 48.1 in September.

Locally, the industry-wide PMI for September is due out later today; the index is currently in expansion, at 50.5.
The SARB's gross and net reserves for September are scheduled for release on Wednesday.
Gross reserves increased to $75.95bn in August, from $73.45bn in July, while net reserves increased to $73.69bn in August, from $71.76bn in July.
Manufacturing production for August is due out Thursday; production likely increased by 0.4% y/y in August, following a 1.1% y/y increase in July.
Production increased by 2.2% m/m in July.

Brent crude oil is currently at $101.45/bbl; ($102.25/bbl*).
Gold is at $4134/oz ($4141/oz*).
SA CDS 142bps*, Brazil 128bps* and Turkey 256bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 5.27%*, German bund at 3.46%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.03%*, SA's R2035 at 8.82%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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