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In the loop 24 April 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.63/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.50/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.1%) and PLN (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-1.1%), CLP (-1.0%) and ARS (-1.0%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Iran war: tensions stayed elevated due to continued maritime and diplomatic frictions.
  • Washington maintained its naval blockade of Iranian ports, with President Trump saying that the ceasefire extension was intended to allow more time for Pakistan-brokered diplomacy.
  • Iran insisted it would not negotiate under blockade conditions, and signalled that further talks were stalled by what it described as ‘US bad faith'.
  • Iran stepped up the pressure in the Strait of Hormuz.
 
  • ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said yesterday that President Trump's repeated attacks on the Fed are eroding trust in US institutions and prompting a shift away from US assets and the dollar. 
  • He cited the Bundesbank's research indicating that political pressure on the Fed is associated with lower Treasury yields, weaker equity markets, higher gold prices, and a softer dollar. 
  • The findings point to a two-layered risk repricing.
  • Firstly, domestically, investors rotate from equities into Treasuries in a flight to safety.
  • Secondly, externally, the weaker dollar and rising gold prices signal capital moving out of US assets. 
  • Nagel added that concerns over institutional integrity are driving these dynamics, and warned that undermining central bank independence could ultimately prove counterproductive.
 
  • The UK's GfK consumer confidence index fell to -25 in April, its lowest level since 2023, down from -21 in March. 
  • The drop was more pronounced than the modest decline seen last month following the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran. 
  • The sub-index tracking expectations for personal finances over the next year also deteriorated.
  • Views on the broader economic outlook weakened sharply. 
  • The data implies that households are increasingly reassessing the implications of the Middle East conflict for their finances.
 
  • UK retail sales for March are scheduled for release today and are expected to have flatlined m/m, after having declined by 0.4% m/m in February.
  • On a y/y basis, sales are likely to have increased by 1.1% in March, though down from 2.5% y/y in February.
  • The UK Decision Maker Panel's (DMP) April survey results on inflation expectations will be released today. 
  • Both the three-month and one-year ahead inflation expectations came in 3.5% in March.
 
  • Locally, it's a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 76.10% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 8.1% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $105.60/bbl; ($105.07/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4675/oz ($4694/oz*).
  • SA CDS 153bps*, Brazil 123bps* and Turkey 238ps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.32%*, German bund at 3.00%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.76%*, SA's R2035 at 8.61%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: UK retail sales (March)
  • 10h30: UK Decision Maker Panel (DMP) 3m and 1yr inflation expectations (April)
  • 16h00: US University of Michigan sentiment, 1yr and 5-10yr inflation expectations (April – final)
 

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