In the loop 30 April 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.88/$, after weaker stronger yesterday (R16.79/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ARS (+1.0%) and RUB (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-2.1%), ZAR (-1.5%) and KRW (-1.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

Iran war: the US yesterday signalled that sustained pressure, rather than rapid de-escalation, was now its preferred strategy.
President Trump publicly warned that the naval blockade of Iranian ports and shipping might last for months.
He noted that extended economic strangulation was more effective and less risky than renewed military strikes.

Central bank watch: the US FOMC yesterday decided to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged, at 3.50-3.75%.
Three regional bank presidents dissented in favour of removing any easing bias from the statement, and a Fed governor dissented in favour of cutting.
The decision to hold rates steady marked a third consecutive pause as policymakers adopted a cautious, data-dependent stance.
The decision reflected a balancing act between still-elevated inflation, partly driven by rising global energy prices and a moderating labour market.
Fed policymakers noted that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, but uncertainty has increased significantly.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term is due to end on 15 May.
Powell yesterday said that he intends to remain at the central bank as a member of its Board of Governors.
He added that he would not leave until the Justice Department's investigation into the central bank is "well and truly over with transparency and finality”.

The Bank of Canada also held interest rates steady yesterday.
The central bank noted saying adjustments to borrowing costs would likely be small if the economy and inflation evolve as expected.
Policymakers noted major risks to their outlook, including a review of the North American trade deal and the Iran conflict, which could require different responses for monetary policy.

The ECB will meet today and is expected to remain in a wait-and-see mode amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of the Iran conflict.
President Christine Lagarde is likely to emphasise that all policy options remain on the table.
She is likely to reiterate that a prolonged period of elevated commodity prices might necessitate some degree of monetary tightening.
The BOE will announce its interest rate decision today; it is expected to hold rates at 3.75%.
The central bank is set to release updated forecasts.

The preliminary Eurozone Q1:26 GDP and April inflation data is due out today.
GDP is expected to have risen by 0.2% q/q, matching the pace of Q4:25, and is unlikely to influence this month's monetary policy decision.
CPI is likely to have increased to 3.0% y/y in April, from 2.6% y/y in March.

The US Fed's preferred inflation gauge for March, the core PCE deflator, due out today, is expected to show some moderation.
Core PCE inflation was likely up 0.3% in m/m in Marh, after having increased by 0.4% m/m in February.
Personal income is likely to have increased by 0.3% m/m in March, after having decreased by 0.1% m/m in February.
Personal spending is expected to have increased by 0.9% m/m in March, up from 0.5% m/m in February.
Today will also see the release of the advance estimate of Q1:26 GDP, with growth likely rebounding to around 2.0% q/q, up from 0.5% q/q in Q4:25.

Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for March are scheduled for release today.
PSCE is expected to have increased by 9.6% y/y in March, down from 10.5% y/y in February.
The March PPI is expected at 2.0% y/y, after having increased by 1.8% y/y in February.
The monthly Budget balance data for March is on the cards today; a budget deficit of R10.0bn is expected, from a surplus of R27.3bn in February.
The March trade surplus is expected to have compressed to R29.0bn in March, from a surplus of R36.9bn in February.

Brent crude oil is currently at $124.65/bbl; ($118.03/bbl*).
Gold is at $4565/oz ($4547/oz*).
SA CDS 159bps**, Brazil 123bps* and Turkey 252bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.42%*, German bund at 3.11%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.98%*, SA's R2035 at 8.83%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

08h00: SA M3 and PSCE (March)
11h00: Eurozone GDP (Q1:26), CPI (April), unemployment rate (March)
11h30: SA PPI (March)
13h00: UK BOE interest rate decision – no change expected
14h00: SA trade balance (March), monthly budget balance (March)
14h15: Eurozone ECB interest rate decision – no change expected
14h30: US personal income and spending, core PCE (March), initial jobless claims (25 April), GDP (Q1:26)
16h00: US leading index (March)

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