In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is unchanged this morning at R16.77/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.77/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the RUB (+1.4%), THB (+1.3%) and BRL (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-1.6%), COP (-1.4%) and ZAR (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up while the Hang Seng is down.   

• China's trade surplus increased to a record $101.3bn in July from $97.9bn in June.
• Exports increased ahead of expectations by 18% y/y in July while imports were up by 2.3% y/y in July.
• The data eases concern somewhat about waning global demand. 
• However, the data was supported by exporters catching up on business that was delayed by lockdowns.
• Chinese CPI, due Wednesday, is likely to have increased to 2.9% y/y in July from 2.5% y/y in June; PPI is expected to have slowed.
• Credit data is also due this week.

• US inflation data for July is on the cards this week.
• Headline CPI is likely to have moderated to 8.7% y/y in July from 9.1% y/y in June while core CPI is expected to have increased to 6.1% y/y in July from 5.9% y/y in June.
• Non-farm productivity is expected to have declined for the second consecutive quarter in Q2:22 amid economic contraction but surging job growth.
• Declining productivity is discouraging for the Fed.
• Several Fed policymakers including Charles Evans, Neel Kashkari and Mary Daly are scheduled to comment on Fed policy and the economy this week.
• The University of Michigan sentiment index for August is due out this week and is expected to have improved, albeit slightly.

• UK GDP for Q2:22 is due out on Friday; a contraction of 0.2% q/q in Q2:22 is expected from an increase of 0.8% q/q in Q1:22.
• While the UK is likely to return to growth in Q3:22, the BOE sees the economy entering a recession in Q4:22 as the cost-of-living crisis deepens.
• Russian GDP for Q2:22 is also on the cards this week and is expected to have contracted by 4.8% y/y from a 3.5% y/y increase in Q1:22.
• Eurozone industrial production for July is due and is expected to have been impacted by the war in Ukraine which has added to supply chain pressures while energy risks are mounting.

• Locally, the SACCI businesses confidence index for July is due out on Wednesday.
• Both the mining and manufacturing production data for June are scheduled for release on Thursday.

• Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 22.5% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and down by 3.1% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $95.24/bbl; ($94.92/bbl*).
• Gold is at $1772/oz ($1775/oz*).
• SA CDS 275bps*, Brazil 275bps* and Turkey 735bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 2.82%*, German bund at 0.96%* and SA 10-year generic at 10.73%*, SA’s R186 at 8.89%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data: 

• 10h30: Eurozone Sentix investor confidence (August)

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