In the loop 06 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R16.33/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.32/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the PHP (+0.7%), COP (+0.6%) and THB (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.3%), CLP (-0.3%) and TRY (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: Iran yesterday said it is in its “final stage” of reaching an agreement with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz.
This marks an important step toward reopening the strait for global energy supplies.
An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said negotiations were progressing well and that a deal would be reached provided “certain third parties” do not obstruct the process.
The announcement comes after months of deadlock between the US and Iran over ending the conflict, with access to the Strait of Hormuz remaining one of the key sticking points.

Eurozone retail sales for June are scheduled for release today and are expected to have increased by 1.0% y/y, following a 1.6% y/y increase in May.
On a m/m basis, retail sales are likely to have increased by 0.1% m/m in June, following a 0.2% increase in May.
The ECB is due to publish its Economic Bulletin later today.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation remains too high and argued that the Fed should begin gradually raising interest rates to avoid the need for more aggressive tightening later.
However, he stressed that he had not yet decided on the appropriate policy action for September and would be guided by incoming economic data.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also warned that inflation could prove more persistent than expected.
She outlined two possible scenarios: one in which inflation continues to moderate, and another in which underlying price pressures remain stubbornly elevated, requiring a different policy response.
Should the latter scenario materialise, Daly said policymakers must be prepared to act decisively.
She added that a swift adjustment in interest rates may be more appropriate than a gradual approach.

The US ISM services PMI increased to 54.1 in July, from 54.0 in June.
The slight increase signalled continued expansion despite a more challenging operating environment.
The improvement was driven by stronger business activity and a sharp increase in new orders, reflecting resilient underlying demand, while export orders also strengthened.
However, the PMI pointed to mounting inflationary pressures, with the prices paid index rising in July as firms reported higher costs for a broad range of goods and services.
Employment slipped back into contraction in July, suggesting that businesses remain cautious about hiring even as activity expands.

Locally, electricity production and consumption for June are due for release today.
Electricity production decreased by 9.0% y/y in May, while consumption declined by 4.3% y/y in May.

Brent crude oil is currently at $79.03/bbl; ($79.45/bbl*).
Gold is at $4252/oz ($4246/oz*).
SA CDS 120bps*, Brazil 120bps* and Turkey 229bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.61%*, German bund at 3.11%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.49%*, SA's R2035 at 8.29%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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