In the loop 23 February 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.02/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.03/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the ARS (+1.1%), ZAR (+0.9%) and MXN (+0.8%) were the biggest gainers; the INR (-0.3%), COP (-0.3%) and HUF (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets: the Hang Seng is up this morning.

Central bank watch: the Central Bank of Nigeria is expected to resume its easing cycle on Wednesday, likely cutting its policy rate by 50 bps, to 26.5%, following a pause in November.
In China, commercial banks are expected to keep the loan prime rates unchanged for a ninth consecutive month tomorrow, signalling a preference for policy stability amid mixed growth dynamics.
The Bank of Thailand is anticipated to leave its benchmark rate unchanged, at 1.25%, on Wednesday.
The Bank of Korea is expected to hold its policy rate steady, at 2.5%, on Thursday.

Japan's industrial production data for January, due Friday, is expected to show a rebound.
Output likely rose by 5.3% m/m in January, after contracting by 0.1% m/m in December, supported by front-loaded export activity ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in China.

Germany's February Ifo business climate survey is scheduled for release today and will provide updated insight into economic momentum heading into the first half of 2026.
While firms' assessment of current conditions improved in January, expectations for the near term weakened.
The final estimate of January Eurozone CPI, due on Wednesday, will offer further clarity on the drivers behind the recent moderation in services inflation.
The decline may partly reflect seasonal repricing effects that typically occur at the start of the year.

The US S&P Cotality Case-Shiller house price index for December is due tomorrow.
Annual home price growth likely eased, in line with a moderation in the median sales price of existing single-family homes.
The Conference Board consumer confidence index for February is also scheduled for release tomorrow.
The index is expected to rise to 87.0, from 84.5 in January, suggesting a modest improvement in household sentiment.

Locally, Minister Enoch Godongwana is scheduled to table Budget 2026 in parliament on Wednesday.
The Budget is expected to reaffirm government's commitment to fiscal consolidation.
The SARB leading indicator for December is due for release on Wednesday; the leading indicator increased to 118.4 in November, from 116.8 in October.
The January PPI is on the cards on Thursday and is expected to come in at 2.4% y/y, after having increased by 2.9% y/y in December.
The M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for January are scheduled for release on Friday.
PSCE is expected to have increased by 8.64% y/y in January, after having increased by from 8.74% y/y in December.
The monthly Budget balance data for January is also due for release on Friday; the budget deficit was R38.4bn in December.
The January trade balance is scheduled for release on Friday; the trade surplus is expected to have narrowed to R5.3bn in January, from a surplus of R23.2bn in December.

Brent crude oil is currently at $70.95/bbl; ($71.76/bbl*).
Gold is at $5157/oz ($5107/oz*).
SA CDS 139bbps*, Brazil 127bps* and Turkey 223bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.08%*, German bund at 2.73%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.10%*, SA's R2035 at 7.97%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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